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The European Commission has announced the first reference price for Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificates. For Q1 2026, the price is set at €75.36 per tonne of CO2 equivalent.
Under the latest framework, the CBAM certificate price for 2026 will be determined quarterly, resulting in four published price levels. After the Q1 price, subsequent reference points are scheduled for 6 July, 5 October, and early January 2027. Each quarterly price applies only to the amount of goods imported in the corresponding quarter.
CBAM entered official operation on 1 January 2026. The regime requires importers to comply for six key product groups: steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen.
Importers covered by CBAM must offset emissions arising from production outside the EU. This is done by purchasing CBAM certificates that correspond to the quantity of carbon emitted.
The €75.36 per tCO2 reference price is calculated based on the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) average auction price. The linkage to EU ETS pricing is intended to support a level playing field between domestic producers and foreign exporters.
According to the timetable, certificate purchases begin on 1 February 2027 to settle quantities imported in 2026. The deadline for filing reports and submitting the first certificates is 30 September 2027.
Klinova’s analysis says the €75.36/tCO2 figure more clearly reflects how the EU is incorporating emissions into the cost structure of international trade. The firm argues this means emissions efficiency will increasingly influence costs, margins and the competitiveness of export-oriented businesses.
The reference price is also described as a signal to exporters in high-emission-intensive sectors that carbon is becoming a real business cost rather than only a regulatory compliance requirement. Within CBAM coverage, steel, cement, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen are expected to remain among the most affected sectors.
For companies exporting directly to the EU or operating within EU supply chains, the pressure is not limited to emissions reporting. Firms also need capability to manage carbon systematically. Klinova notes that as emissions are converted into costs, companies without transparent emissions data systems face higher risks of compliance costs and potential loss of competitive advantage.
“At €75.36 per tCO2, the cost-driven push for technology upgrade to reduce or eliminate emissions in order to avoid allocations under the cap is clearly high,” said Dr. Nguyen Phuong Nam, International Evaluation Expert for UNFCCC on Climate Change and CEO of Klinova. “That illustrates the commitment under EU law that will push global trade to adapt and comply.”
A key point highlighted by the expert is that the first CBAM reference price is already changing how companies view carbon. Where emissions were previously treated mainly as a sustainability or ESG reporting issue, they are increasingly being treated as a financial and commercial factor.
Dr. Nam says this creates an urgent need for enterprises to strengthen emissions data MRV systems—measurement, reporting and verification—and to review carbon exposure across each product line or production activity.
He also notes that the carbon price level would be used for CBAM compliance for goods listed and updated every two weeks according to ETS market prices, and that the trend would rise as the cap on allowances becomes tighter.
“This suggests that carbon-intensive goods from Vietnam entering the EU will be clearly affected in the next 3-5 years if green transformation is not genuinely pursued, rather than merely paying the CBAM tax,” Dr. Nam said.
In the long run, CBAM preparation is described as extending beyond compliance. It is also positioned as an opportunity for firms to reassess operating strategies, technology and energy use to reduce emissions intensity. As international markets pay increasing attention to carbon footprint, the ability to manage and reduce emissions could become part of competitive advantage, particularly for firms targeting exports to markets with stricter climate requirements.
The article frames CBAM as a “new boundary line” that will help determine Vietnam’s position in the global supply chain.
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