Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Warns Global Recession Likely If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed for Six to Twelve Months

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that the global economy could fall into recession if the Hormuz Strait remained closed for six to twelve months, arguing that an energy shock of that scale would be unavoidable. Speaking at a Washington, DC conference on April 14, CNBC quoted him saying the disruption would also accelerate a broad shift toward renewable energy sources including wind, solar and nuclear power.

Escalation risk and energy shock warnings

Griffin added that the war’s consequences would be much worse if the United States delayed attacking Iran until Iran’s military capacity grew further. He is among several forecasters warning about recession risks tied to the conflict.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, the IMF warned that the US–Iran conflict risked triggering an energy crisis on an unprecedented scale that could push the global economy into recession. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the world economy faced a “difficult test,” noting that closure of Hormuz and damage at key hydrocarbon facilities could create a major energy crisis if the conflict continues.

Separately, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, speaking in a BBC interview at the end of March, warned that oil could rise as high as $150 per barrel and trigger a global recession if Iran remained a threat to trade, to Hormuz and to Gulf security even after the current war ends. Fink said that if the war ends but Iran continues to pose a threat, oil prices could stay above $100 per barrel for years, potentially approaching $150, with “profound effects” on the global economy.

Oil price moves and market signals

Oil prices fell sharply on April 14 after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran could resume within two days. WTI futures were near $91 per barrel and Brent near $95.

On the morning of April 15, WTI for May hovered around $91 per barrel, while Brent for June was around $95 per barrel.

On April 13, Brent spot surged toward a fresh high around $150 per barrel. Analysts cited a record-wide gap between spot and futures, reflecting tight physical supply.

Policy and security framing

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the BBC on April 14 that “a little economic loss” is worth ensuring long-term security. He said he was less concerned about near-term forecasts than about long-term security.

Underlying demand and geopolitical context

Before the war, Iran was reported to have enriched uranium to 60 percent, though Tehran is not believed to possess a nuclear weapon.

The IEA reported that world oil demand would fall sharply due to high prices. China’s exports also slowed sharply as the Middle East conflict weighed on trade, and China spoke after the United States blocked Hormuz.