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Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday as uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran war persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted. Traders are increasingly focused on physical supply flows rather than political statements, pricing in a deeper supply shock and a longer period of volatility.
Crude oil prices extended gains, with Brent reaching $108 per barrel for a seventh consecutive day of increases. WTI also rallied to $97 amid concerns that stalled U.S.-Iran talks could lead to supply disruptions.
Market attention has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy route used to transport energy equivalent to about 20% of global oil and gas demand. With Iran curtailing shipping and the U.S. continuing to blockade Iranian ports, less crude is reaching international buyers from the Middle East.
Vessel-traffic data cited in the report indicates that six Iranian oil tankers had to turn back due to the U.S. blockade. Before the war began on February 28, an average of 125–140 ships used the Strait each day; traffic has since fallen. Even if an immediate ceasefire were reached, the report notes it could take months to resolve supply outages, port congestion, and shipping bottlenecks—supporting a continuing risk premium in oil prices.
The daily chart for WTI shows the price has remained within a broad range of $80 to $120 since the war began. Prior to the conflict, the report describes bullish development above long-term support at $55.
It also notes that WTI broke above a downtrend line around the $70 region when the war started on February 28, surged toward $120, and then corrected lower to the 50-day simple moving average near $80. The report says WTI is now rebounding toward the $120 area, reflecting uncertainty, and that the RSI remains above the midline, suggesting further upside in the short term.
In the short term, WTI is described as consolidating between $80 and $120, with the current rebound occurring after the price hit the lower support band near $80.
Brent’s daily chart shows fluctuations between $90 and $120, according to the report. It states that Brent’s overall structure remains strongly bullish following a breakout from a descending broadening wedge pattern around $72.
After the wedge breakout, Brent reportedly moved above the $90 resistance level and entered a more volatile trading region. The report adds that fears of supply disruptions could push crude prices higher in May and June.
Both Brent and WTI are supported by tight physical supply conditions, limited progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The report characterizes both benchmarks as trading in volatile regions while maintaining price structures that remain supportive of higher prices.
It notes that WTI is recovering from $80 support toward $120 and that Brent is holding above $90. With tanker flows still constrained and supply risks unresolved, the report says the market is likely to maintain a high risk premium for crude. It also states that a peace deal could dampen the rally, but improvements in supply flows could take time, leaving oil exposed to higher prices in May and June.
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