Dow Jones Index: Top catalysts this week as earnings season begins and US-Iran talks unfold

The Dow Jones Index rebounded last week to its highest level since May 4, after the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire. The index rose to 48,250, up 6.45% from its lowest level this month. This week, investors are focused on the next steps in US-Iran talks, upcoming corporate earnings, and additional US macroeconomic data.

US-Iran talks end without a deal

Market participants will be watching for actions from President Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu after the first round of talks between the US and Iran ended without a concrete agreement. Vice President JD Vance said the meeting concluded without a deal because the Iranians refused to accept US terms.

Iran, meanwhile, said it was not in a hurry to make a bad deal and indicated it would continue managing the Strait of Hormuz. Tasnim said: “The Americans intended to achieve concessions in the negotiation room that they could not obtain during the war.”

The lack of an agreement was described as a disappointment for Trump, whose approval rating has reportedly been declining. The article also notes that an escalation could push crude oil prices higher and contribute to a stock market reversal as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut fade.

Corporate earnings season drives expectations

Another key catalyst for the Dow Jones Index this week is the start of first-quarter earnings season. Major US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley are scheduled to report their results.

Non-bank companies listed in the article that will also release earnings include Fastenal, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock, Progressive, Netflix, PepsiCo, and Abbot.

FactSet data cited in the article places the estimated year-over-year growth rate for the S&P 500 at 12.6%. If that estimate holds, it would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The article also states that historical data suggests actual earnings growth is often higher than estimates, with FactSet estimating real earnings growth at 19%, the highest level since 2021. FactSet also said: “Over the past ten years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 7.1% on average.”

US macro data: inflation and labor market in focus

The Dow Jones Index’s rebound followed recent US macroeconomic data. The labor market report showed the economy created 178k jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. The article also notes a mild reaction to the latest consumer inflation report, which showed inflation rising from 2.4% to 3.3% in March. Core inflation increased from 2.5% to 2.7%.

These figures, according to the article, suggest the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish tone this year to address the higher inflation readings.

Upcoming data: PPI and trade prices

Key macroeconomic releases scheduled for this week include the US producer price index (PPI), as well as import and export prices. Economists expect the headline PPI inflation rate to rise to 4.1% in March from 3.4% previously.