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Gold prices were volatile across a wide range in the session on Tuesday (May 12), as higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and the hottest US inflation reading in nearly three years weighed on sentiment. Bargain-buying also returned, helping prices recover from intraday lows. The SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, posted a second consecutive day of net purchases.
At the close, spot gold in New York traded at $4,716.40 per ounce, down $20.10 from the previous session’s close, or 0.4%. Silver was at $86.69 per ounce, up $0.47, or 0.55%.
On the COMEX futures market, gold for June 2026 delivery fell 0.9%, settling at $4,686.70 per ounce. During the session, spot gold briefly rose above $4,774 per ounce and fell to near $4,638 per ounce, for a trading range of about $140 per ounce.
Oil continued higher as prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran faded. Brent crude settled near $108 a barrel, up 3.4%, while WTI settled near $102.20 a barrel, up 4.2%.
Since the Gulf conflict erupted in late February, the oil rally has added to global inflationary pressure, increasing the likelihood that central banks keep policy rates higher for longer—an environment that weighed on the precious metals complex. In addition, in the absence of a peace deal, the US dollar has been viewed by many investors as a safe haven.
That session, the Dollar Index rose 0.34% to 98.29. The data pushed back expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, reinforcing a higher-for-longer path that is negative for gold, a non-yielding asset.
Markets also expect the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and euro-area central banks to raise rates this year. Higher oil prices are increasing the likelihood that the Fed and other central banks may need to raise rates to counter inflation.
“Gold is reacting to that,” said Bart Melek, Chief Global Strategist at TD Securities.
Despite the pressure from oil and the dollar, bargain-buying appeared around the $4,650 level, lifting gold back above the key $4,700 per ounce mark.
The SPDR Gold Trust bought around 2 tonnes of gold on the day, lifting holdings to about 1,038.3 tonnes.
Some analysts believe that if the Middle East conflict pushes the global economy into stagflation, gold could resume its safe-haven role. The fact that gold remained near $4,700/oz even as oil and the dollar rose suggests the safe-haven role of the precious metal may be reasserting itself.
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