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In the baseline scenario, BSC Research forecasts that Vietnam’s stock market may be notified by MSCI to be included on the Watch-list in the 2026–2027 period. In its latest market outlook update, BSC Securities expects the VN-Index in May to consolidate around the 1,860 +/- 60 point band.
BSC Securities cites expectations that foreign investor capital will return to Vietnam’s stock market during the upgrade process, alongside policies aimed at promoting economic growth. Measures highlighted include efforts to foster the development of the foreign-invested sector (FDI) and policies to stabilize the real estate market.
In early April, the VN-Index traded around its five-year average P/E as it rose on positive news that FTSE officially approved the upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market. During the month, the P/E moved in the 14.x–14.3x range and closed on April 29, 2026 at 13.98, up 0.34% from the previous month.
Over the same period, the VN-Index P/B reached 2.15x, up more than 7.5% versus the prior month. As of May 11, 2026, the VN-Index P/E stood at 14.28 and P/B at 2.16.
In a scenario where the VN-Index trades around 1,860 +/- 60 points, the index P/E is expected to broaden to roughly 13.5x–15.5x.
Data from VSD shows that in April 2026, more than 244,744 new stock accounts were opened, bringing the total to nearly 13 million—equivalent to about 1.3% of Vietnam’s population.
On margin lending, the margin loan balance in Q1 2026 reached about VND 404.293 trillion, up 0.88% quarter-on-quarter. This amount is equivalent to 97% of equity and uses about 49% of the permitted lending limit.
Foreign ETFs reduced net selling in the month, totaling more than USD 16.15 million, down over 86.7% from the previous month. VanEck returned to net buying over USD 10.66 million in April and continued net buying over USD 1.92 million as of May 6.
The Global X MSCI Vietnam fund, which tracks the MSCI Vietnam Select 25/50 Index, recorded positive net buying from April 2025 through early May 2026, lifting its NAV from about USD 10 million to nearly USD 38 million. By contrast, the Fubon fund continued net outflows of more than USD 24.29 million in April, with net outflows extending into early May for three consecutive sessions totaling over USD 4.5 million.
FTSE (-USD 2.0 million) and Premia (-USD 0.51 million) also maintained net selling during the month.
Domestic ETFs showed mixed trading, with total net outflow exceeding USD 0.75 million due to index reviews for VNDiamond, VN30, and VNFIN Lead in Q2 2026. Net outflows were concentrated in the E1 and MiraeVN30 funds, while Diamond and SSIVN30 posted net buying in April.
In early May, FTSE Russell published documents related to stocks likely to be added to FTSE indices. The list is described as provisional, with the official eligible list to be announced on Friday, August 21, 2026. FTSE also announced changes to the weighting of Vietnamese stocks across its four main indices.
On MSCI, BSC Research reiterates that Vietnam could be notified to the MSCI Watch-list in the 2026–2027 period. Historically, it takes about 2–3 years for MSCI to approve an upgrade after a country is added to the Watch-list, assuming reforms are implemented and obligations are met.
Earlier, SSI Research said Vietnam is highly likely to be placed on the Watch-list for an upgrade in the June 2026 review. SSI Research notes that Vietnam has already met 10/18 MSCI criteria for access and is continuing to improve on the remaining criteria.
Progress cited includes implementing the Non-Refunding mechanism, the roadmap for applying a central counterparty (CCP), and expanding short-selling tools via VN30 futures. SSI Research also points to improved disclosure of information in English by regulators and listed companies.
Foreign ownership on HOSE rose from 41.4% to 46% in April 2026, mainly attributed to the listing of large-cap companies with full foreign ownership rights. With these improvements, 17/18 MSCI criteria are approaching basic thresholds.
The remaining hurdle is primarily FX market liberalization. However, SSI Research notes this may not be decisive, as many emerging MSCI markets do not fully meet the criterion yet. Proposals allowing commercial banks to provide FX hedging tools are viewed as a positive signal for the upgrade outlook.
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