Macro challenge for 2026 and Vietnamese banks' race to reach a trillion-dollar capital base

Macro challenge for 2026 and the race to a trillion-dollar capital for Vietnamese banks. As the 2026 AGM season begins, 'increasing charter capital' is the keyword shaping Vietnam's financial market landscape after profit growth targets. Banks are presenting capital-raising plans of record scale, expanding their capital to milestone levels. This is no longer a race for ranking; increasing charter capital is a necessary step for the banking system to adapt to a new macroeconomic recovery cycle and higher demands for financial safety. Leading players are at the forefront of the capital-raising drive. A string of banks announced bold capital increases, mainly through paying dividends in shares or selling to strategic partners. Vietcombank plans to issue 1.07 billion shares to lift charter capital to 94,238 billion dong, using retained earnings to capital reserve to date 2023. In the private banking segment, MB aims to raise charter capital from about 80,550 billion to 102,687 billion through three options: issue 1.2 billion shares to pay 2025 dividends, offer up to 805 million shares to the public via rights issue, and issue 200 million shares privately. VPBank remains ambitious, targeting an increase from 79,339 billion to 100,000 billion via issuing more than 2 billion shares (26.04%) to raise equity from owners. Annual shareholder meetings of VIB approved plans to increase charter capital by issuing more than 323 million shares (9.5%) to existing shareholders and issuing 8 million ESOP shares (0.24%) to employees. Consequently VIB's charter capital would rise from 34,040 billion to about 37,354 billion. ACB also approved a plan to issue a further 667.77 million shares to pay a 13% dividend to current shareholders. If successful, ACB's charter capital would rise from 21,366 billion to 58,044 billion. Smaller banks are also raising capital: ABBank intends to raise charter capital by about 6,273 billion through three issuance phases: paying dividends in shares (15%), selling more shares to the public (20%), and ESOP share issuance (4%), which could lift charter capital by up to 96% to 20,242 billion if all succeed. VietBank also plans a 4,779 billion uplift this year through three tranches: issuing common shares from owner equity (10%), offering more shares to existing shareholders (25%), and ESOP shares (5%), lifting charter capital to 15,548 billion. BVBank targets a 55% increase to 6,408 billion; VietABank also aims for a 55% rise to 12,688 billion. The capital-raising plans come as macro catalysts and structural reforms push banks to strengthen capital; analysts expect 2026 to be a turning point in policy stimulus, public investment disbursement, and the surge in FDI. The economy, thirsty for capital, requires the State Bank to provide more headroom for credit growth, allocated according to each bank's financial health. A thicker capital base expands lending capacity for major projects in infrastructure, renewable energy, and industry real estate, while maintaining safety caps. On the debt side, stronger capital helps improve loan loss buffers and PCR ratios to absorb asset quality shocks. In addition, new capital provides room for banks to invest in technology. With net interest margins narrowing due to competition, deploying AI and big data to optimize cost-to-income ratio is essential for maintaining profitability. From optimizing capital to rising international standing. When banks complete their capital-raising to cross the one-trillion-dollar threshold in 2026, additional strategic benefits may follow. In risk management, new capital improves the capital adequacy ratio (CAR), enabling banks to adopt stricter international governance standards such as Basel III. A higher CAR lowers the cost of capital. Lower liquidity risk and stronger credit ratings can make domestic banks easier to access cheaper overseas funds to finance long-term national projects. Given the globalization context, a large capital base also broadens the credit limits for individual clients, empowering domestic banks to act as lead arrangers for mega-national projects and compete with foreign financial institutions. Moreover, a banking system with substantial capital and ample liquidity is a prerequisite for Vietnam's stock market to meet global listing standards and ascend in global rankings. Overall, the wave of record capital increases anticipated in 2026 signals a comprehensive shift from growth through leverage to growth based on sustainable capital, boosting the financial system's resilience to macro shocks and readiness to expand regionally in the new era.