Memory prices ease after year-long rally as DDR4 and DDR5 decline; TrendForce expects DRAM contract prices to rise 58%–63% in Q2 2026, with NAND Flash up 70%–75%

After surging as much as twentyfold over 12 months, DDR4 memory prices have cooled by about 5% on the spot market and in retail channels. This is the first monthly price decline for DDR4 (16GB) since February 2025, marking a rare correction after a prolonged rally, according to DigiTimes. Even with the pullback, the current DDR4 (16GB) price remains more than 20 times higher than a year earlier.

DDR4 and DDR5 price moves

In the DDR5 segment, 16GB line prices declined similarly, to about $37.20. The downtrend is more pronounced in retail channels in China and on e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, where certain DDR5 32GB lines are down as much as 30%.

These changes have been concentrated in the spot market and retail channels. The contract market—where PC manufacturers and system integrators complete most transactions—has not yet shown corresponding adjustments.

Contract market outlook

TrendForce’s latest survey expects generic DRAM contract prices in Q2 2026 to rise sharply by 58%–63% quarter-on-quarter. For NAND Flash, the expected increase is even higher, from 70% to 75% after a record 90%–95% rise in Q1 for DRAM.

Supplier pricing and contract behavior

According to DigiTimes, all three major suppliers, along with Chinese memory manufacturers such as CXMT and YMTC, have not yet adjusted prices. Customers, meanwhile, continue to sign long-term supply contracts.

Spot trades account for a small share of total memory shipments, so volatility in retail channels has limited impact on OEM pricing.

Where volatility is strongest

China is the region recording the sharpest fluctuations. DDR5 (32GB) prices there have fallen as much as 27% in one month. DDR4 8GB and 16GB have also seen weekly declines of up to 25%, according to China Flash Market.

Key factors behind the adjustment

Two main factors are driving the recent price movements. First, distributors built up large inventories early in the upcycle and are now forced to liquidate as smaller module manufacturers can no longer pass costs downstream to consumption. Second, technological developments are influencing trader sentiment.

At the end of March, Google announced TurboQuant memory compression. The company’s research arm says the technology can compress memory buffers of large language models by six times without reducing response quality. Some traders have accelerated selling amid concerns that demand for memory used in large-scale AI could weaken if similar solutions are adopted more widely.

Broader market signals

Even as DDR prices cool, older products such as DDR3 and NAND MLC continue to trend higher in price. As manufacturers gradually phase out older processes to focus resources on AI-ready memory, tight supply is expected to support prices in the near term.