Northern real estate market to grow more cautiously.

Over the next 6-12 months, the North’s industrial real estate and logistics market is forecast to grow more cautiously. Rising energy costs are expected to push up logistics, transportation and production input costs, directly affecting corporate profit margins and prompting some firms to adjust expansion plans or postpone land leasing and plant construction.

Q1 2026: Supply growth, stable occupancy and higher rents

In Q1 2026, the Northern industrial real estate market continued to expand, supported by supply growth and generally stable occupancy, while rents trended upward.

Industrial land: 13,000 hectares and 82% occupancy

According to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), the industrial land bank in key northern provinces stands at nearly 13,000 hectares, with more than 70 industrial parks in operation. In Q1 2026, the market recorded over 100 hectares of new supply in Haiphong (formerly Hai Duong). The occupancy rate remained around 82%, while the cumulative traded area by the end of the quarter reached 10,400 hectares, up 5% year-on-year.

Major developers including Kinh Bac City, Deep C, Viglacera, Rox iPark and VSIP account for nearly 50% of the market share by developed area.

Ready-built factories: 3.6 million m2 supply, rents up

In the ready-built factory segment, supply surpassed 3.6 million m2 across 91 projects in operation, up 14% year-on-year. New supply in the first quarter was about 159,000 m2. Occupancy remained high at 87%, with demand mainly concentrated in Bac Ninh and Hai Phong.

Rents ranged from 4 to 7.1 USD per m2 per month, increasing by an average of 4% year-on-year.

Modern ready-built warehouses: faster supply growth, occupancy softens

The modern ready-built warehouse segment recorded notable growth. Total supply reached about 2.2 million m2, 1.7 times higher than a year earlier. Q1 2026 added another 162,000 m2 of new space, including the JEIL Logistics Hai Phong project by Korean investor JIEL Group.

Despite rapid supply growth, absorption stayed steady, but occupancy fell slightly to 65% as the market took time to absorb the new space. Rents continued to rise, averaging 5.1 USD per m2 per month, up 10% year-on-year—the strongest increase among the three segments.

Investment and demand drivers

JLL said industrial real estate growth is supported by stable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, diversification of global supply chains, and a shift toward factory and ready-built warehouse models.

FDI data: 15.2 billion USD in registered capital in Q1 2026

Data from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office and the Ministry of Finance show that in the first three months of 2026, total registered FDI into Vietnam reached 15.2 billion USD, up 42.9% year-on-year. Of this, 904 new projects were registered with total registered capital of 10.23 billion USD, up 6.4% in number of projects and 2.4 times in registered capital.

The processing and manufacturing sector led with 7.07 billion USD, accounting for 69% of total new capital. By registered capital, investors from Singapore led with 5.32 billion USD, followed by Korea (3.68 billion USD) and China.

Outlook: rent growth, occupancy and absorption timing

Ms. Nguyen Hong Van, Market Director at JLL Vietnam, said that over the next 6-12 months, the North’s industrial real estate and logistics markets are forecast to grow more cautiously due to rising energy costs. She noted that higher logistics, transportation and input costs are likely to pressure corporate margins, leading many groups to adjust expansion plans or delay land leasing and plant construction.

Rents are expected to rise by about 4-6% per year, depending on segment and location, especially in areas near seaports, airports and highway corridors. The occupancy rate is forecast to remain high for industrial land above 80%, while factory and warehouse spaces are expected to improve gradually from late 2026 as new supply is absorbed. Industrial parks with completed infrastructure, attractive incentives and convenient transport connections are continuing to report occupancy near 90%.

Impact of geopolitics and cost considerations

JLL also said geopolitical tensions do not weaken the industrial market overall, but can create short-term pressure through rising logistics costs. This may influence how companies choose production locations, with areas that have developed infrastructure and easy connectivity likely to be prioritized to optimize logistics costs.

Ms. Nguyen Hong Van added that built-to-suit industrial real estate is viewed as the most cost-effective cash-flow option. She also said Vietnam’s industrial real estate market offers a range of options for manufacturers—from industrial land to built-to-suit and turnkey solutions—helping tenants start production in Vietnam and expand later.

Global environment: uncertainty and cost pressures

JLL noted that the global economy remains subject to many uncertainties. Data from statistical offices indicated that in Q1 2026 the global environment was complex and unpredictable as armed conflicts in the Middle East intensified, threatening global peace and security. This contributed to energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions and higher inflationary pressures, while trade policy difficulties and the impacts of natural disasters and climate change also posed challenges to global growth.