Stock market stalls on a cautious start to the week as Middle East tensions weigh on oil prices and investor sentiment

The market cooled in the first session of the week as liquidity shrank and weekend developments weighed on sentiment. Oil prices rose sharply after the Hormuz Strait was blockaded from both sides, adding another setback to investors’ expectations for the region.

While there was no further escalation in terms of missile launches and no additional damage reported to Middle East oil and gas infrastructure, tensions continued to center on energy prices and shipping routes. Negotiations appeared difficult given the wide gap in the parties’ positions. Even so, stock market reactions were not panicked; investors largely returned to a cautious stance. A ceasefire remains in place, which may allow room for further negotiation rounds, though the situation remains unpredictable.

Liquidity and trading breadth

One of the clearest features of the session was slow money flow, with liquidity falling noticeably. Total turnover on both exchanges reached about VND 20.9 trillion (excluding settlements), roughly 7% below the 20-session average. The VN-Index closed up 0.51%, but breadth was weaker, with declines dominating. Gains led by large caps such as VIC and VHM did not translate into stronger net inflows.

Despite the low-liquidity environment, the selloff did not persist. Early in the session, more than 100 stocks fell by over 2%, and nearly 130 additional stocks declined by 1%-2%. By the close, the number of stocks down more than 1% had fallen to about 80, indicating that the initial panic reaction faded and prices managed to recover.

Cash allocation and price dispersion

Price dispersion and cash allocation suggested a degree of balance. On the HSX, 48.4% of liquidity was concentrated in the losers and 44.9% in the gainers. Although breadth implied investors faced a higher probability of losses (gain/loss ratio of 0.8/1), trading still concentrated in green stocks to a relatively high degree. Beyond VIC and VHM, several stocks were highlighted as showing stronger resilience against the broader trend, including CII, GEX, HCM, NVL, BSR, VIB, DXG, and HHV.

In this cautious context, declines of under 1% were described as within normal fluctuations and not materially damaging to portfolios.

Outlook and derivatives signals

If tensions do not escalate into a more active conflict in the coming days, the market is likely to move sideways, with differentiated strength on a low-liquidity backdrop.

In the derivatives market, the session fell within the expiry week, but F1 maintained a positive basis throughout the day. This points to expectations for the underlying market. However, the basis remained around a 12-point discount while investors waited for VN30. The spread made trading more difficult: when VN30 recovered from around 1906.xx to 1922.xx, F1 rose only slightly and long positions were not effective. When VN30 fell back from around 1922.xx, F1 did not adjust as expected, and VN30 did not return to 1906.xx. In the afternoon, conditions worsened as VN30 moved within a narrow range while the basis stayed unfavorable.

The view remained that the market is unlikely to be jolted further, but it also lacks momentum to rise strongly. The recommended approach was short-term positioning, focusing on strong stocks—particularly those with better recovery since late March or those forming two bottoms.

VN30 levels

VN30 closed at 1925.66. Nearest resistance levels for tomorrow are 1937, 1949, 1960, 1967, 1981, and 1996. Supports are 1922, 1907, 1892, 1880, 1865, and 1859.