Stocks in April: After a sharp drop, opportunities emerge

Vietnam’s stock market entered April after a sharp sell-off, with the VN-Index tumbling 11% to 1,674.49 points amid geopolitical tensions. The decline included a session on 09/03 when the index dropped by more than 115 points. Market participants drew parallels to the near-identical April 2025 fall following tariff shocks, noting that the current weakness has created opportunities—particularly for investors holding a high cash position as many stocks trade at heavy discounts and in oversold territory. Valuations also remain relatively attractive versus the growth outlook.

Market drivers and technical picture

Luu Chi Khang, Head of Proprietary Trading at Kin Thiet Vietnam Securities, said the monthly chart shows a steep decline alongside rising liquidity, suggesting selling pressure was largely driven by profit-taking. A positive development is that demand appears to emerge as the VN-Index retreats toward around 1,600 points, a key psychological support level.

On the daily chart, the index has started to rebound in several recent sessions, supported by more constructive US–Iran talks that helped reduce oil prices. However, the rebound has come with liquidity below the 20-session average, and gains have been led mainly by large-cap stocks—indicating a technically driven bounce rather than a confirmed, sustainable uptrend.

Near-term levels and outlook

With no confirmed reversal signal, the VN-Index is likely to test the 1,780–1,790 resistance zone before selling pressure returns. If the market can recover without falling below 1,540, it could provide a foundation for a longer-term uptrend in 2026.

Valuation and key data to watch

Experts said valuations remain relatively attractive for long-term investors. The current P/E is about 13.4 times, below the 10-year average of around 15 times. The P/B is roughly 1.9 times compared with a 10-year average near 2.2 times.

In April, Vietnam’s Statistics Office is expected to release Q1 GDP growth along with exports, inflation, and money supply data, among other indicators—factors that can directly influence market sentiment.

Globally, the inflation trajectory and central bank policy are expected to be more important. The likelihood of keeping rates high in the near term remains, with rate cuts potentially only in Q2. Geopolitical developments will also be closely monitored; if tensions in the Middle East ease and oil prices fall, inflation pressure could ease and give central banks more room to loosen monetary policy, supporting the market.

April strategy and sector focus

Nguyen The Minh said he is not pessimistic about the longer-term trend because current factors do not change the market’s growth fundamentals. He noted that the market is creating opportunities, but investors should take a patient approach. For those still holding stocks, there is little reason to sell at current levels if margin pressure is not a concern; investors may consider holding and potentially averaging down.

For more cautious investors, waiting for a confirmed uptrend signal before deploying new capital may be prudent—such as a sustained rise with improved liquidity or the index breaking back above the 100- and 200-day moving averages.

Luu Chi Khang expects April to be a technical rebound toward 1,780–1,790. His recommended approach is accumulation with a conservative allocation of about 60–70% and no use of margin. As the market approaches resistance, investors should consider taking partial profits.

Notable sectors and themes

Sector ideas highlighted in the article include:

• Banks, supported by attractive valuations (P/B below 1.5x).
• Insurers, benefiting from a high-rate environment.
• Energy, as the shift toward energy continues under geopolitical risk; oil and gas may be monitored, particularly if oil prices retreat to around $85–90 per barrel for a better entry point.
• Construction materials, supported by strong public investment.
• Equities, industrial real estate, and chemicals, cited as sectors that look attractively valued relative to long-run averages.