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Data from the start of 2026 shows Thailand’s tourism sector has fallen sharply short of forecasts, with the downturn arriving earlier than the usual seasonal pattern. Instead of the off-peak period typically seen in late May, the decline has started in mid-April.
For the week of April 13–19, 2026, Thailand welcomed 464,720 international visitors, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. The weekly total was down about 25% from the previous seven days and nearly 16% lower than the same period last year.
To date, international arrivals have reached 10.8 million people. Passenger traffic also weakened: the average daily number of visitors fell from 113,099 in March to 107,308 in early April, a decline of about 5.1%.
April is expected to end with around 2.29 million arrivals, down 6.6% from March and roughly 10% below the same period last year.
The downturn is spreading across most major source markets. From China, the leading source market, only 74,646 visitors arrived in Thailand in the mid-April week, down 29.9% from the prior week.
Aircraft seat occupancy fell to 45.7% after reaching 65.3% a week earlier. Flight frequency also declined by 4.3% from the previous month.
In Koh Samui, Centara hotels with more than 50 properties reported a clear drop in European guests. The group’s revenue declined about 6% year over year.
Centara previously relied heavily on long-haul travelers, particularly Europeans who often transited through Middle East hubs. Flight disruptions have made travel planning more difficult, reducing the share of higher-spending visitors.
Spending behavior is also changing. Chinese travelers are tightening budgets and prioritizing products not readily available in their home market. European travelers are allocating more of their budgets to cultural experiences rather than shopping.
Mr. Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, a senior advisor to the Thai Travel Agents Association (ATTA), attributed the downturn to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which has created a negative spillover effect. He also pointed to volatility in the Thai baht, saying it has affected spending sentiment and made visitors more cautious about services in Thailand.
In response, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) revised its target to welcome 30–34 million visitors, down 18% from the original plan of 36.7 million.
Experts warned that if international conflicts do not ease in the coming quarter, current uncertainties could become a new normal, leading travelers to postpone long-haul trips.
Against this backdrop, the Thai government is weighing changes to visa-exemption policies. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports said the aim is to steer international markets toward higher-quality travelers and to promote domestic tourism.
Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworrakun said the government is reviewing the visa-exemption program. In July last year, Thailand widened visa exemption to allow stays of up to 60 days for tourism and short-term business for citizens of 93 countries, up from 57 visa-exemption countries previously.
The plan under consideration is to restore the visa-exemption list to 57 countries, which could exclude about 36 countries from the exemption. Thailand also plans to scrap the 60-day visa-exemption policy (in place for 93 countries since July 2024) and restore the original list with 57 countries and territories.
Separately, the ministry plans to propose reducing the visa-exemption duration from 60 days to 30 days. The minister said about 90% of visitors to Thailand in recent times stay 1–30 days, while only about 10% stay longer than 30 days, suggesting the length of stay should better match actual traveler behavior.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports said it will restructure the tourism sector toward sustainable, high-value, quality tourism, emphasizing tourism revenue rather than tourist numbers to strengthen Thailand’s image as a high-quality destination.
Officials also expressed support for charging an entry fee, arguing it could provide long-term benefits. They cited examples such as Japan, where tourist fees were implemented without reducing visitor numbers and where growth continued.
Alongside international policy adjustments, the ministry is promoting a program called Quick Win to stimulate domestic tourism. One proposed measure is to waive or reduce taxes to lower domestic travel costs.
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