Two major pressures on real estate developers and opportunities from the information gap in 45 million agricultural plots not yet digitized

The Vietnam Real Estate Association and DKRA Group have announced a plan to restructure capital flows and reposition real assets to help unblock bottlenecks ahead of the real estate cycle expected to grow in 2026. The seminar “Real Estate Market 2026 - Positioning strategic assets amid volatility” drew participation from the association’s leadership and representatives from international consulting firms including CBRE. DKRA Group Chairman of the Board and CEO Pham Lam said the market is being shaped by both micro- and macroeconomic factors, calling on firms and investors to adopt holistic, long-term strategic re-planning rather than short-term stopgap measures.

The “two pincers” squeeze and cost-of-capital pressures

Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien said the domestic economy remains stable, with GDP growth of 8.02%, but the real estate sector is entering a challenging phase under a “two-pincers” squeeze. He pointed to expected lending-rate increases toward year-end, alongside the economy’s requirement to achieve double-digit growth. Real estate debt reached 4.74 quadrillion dong by the end of 2025.

Tran Dinh Thien added that if lending-rate margins rise by another 1 percentage point, the sector’s financial costs would increase by about 47.4 trillion dong per year. He said this would weigh on developers at a time when capital absorption remains weak, with money turnover below 1.

Interest-rate “test” and asset cleansing

Nguyen Minh Ngoc emphasized that capital should be directed toward assets with strong locations and connected infrastructure capable of generating returns. He projected that 2026 will be a broad cleansing period for speculative segments, arguing that rising interest rates will act as a “test” that removes projects lacking cash flow or viable monetization potential.

He said investors should shift capital into “real coordinates,” noting that an asset can have a good location but still become a “dead asset” if it lacks connected infrastructure or fails to meet production or consumer needs—creating high opportunity costs for owners. He also said “smart money” is currently oriented toward segments supported by real demand, where asset values are underwritten by infrastructure planning and land-use efficiency.

Investor guidance: defensive positioning, safety, and selective risk-taking

In closing, experts outlined differentiated capital-allocation strategies.

Defensive approach: “real” product, legal status, and value

Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, representing the defensive school, said investors should focus on “real” positioning standards: real product, real legal status, and real value. He urged investors to avoid “fake projects” and prioritize transparency and ecological protection.

Risk management: capital preservation and fundamentals

From a risk-management perspective, Pham Lam said “safety” should guide decisions. In a market with many variables, he said the core strategy is capital preservation through assets with solid fundamentals and defensive characteristics while waiting for a new growth cycle.

Opportunistic approach: long-term planning and contrarian bets

Conversely, Professor Dr. Tran Dinh Thien argued that investors seeking flexibility should maintain a long-term perspective and plan methodically rather than chase short-term market waves. He said decisive action to seize opportunities matters because real opportunities often emerge when the crowd is hesitant.

Nguyen Minh Ngoc proposed a contrarian strategy focused on agricultural land in areas far from the center. He cited a long-term growth potential tied to an information gap from about 45 million agricultural plots that have not yet been fully digitized. He said this segment requires risk tolerance but could allow visionary investors to improve asset positioning as the land-management system gradually develops.