Unofficial USD rate falls 2.6% in the first week of April

In the first week of April, the free-market USD fell by 730 VND on both the buying and selling sides, equivalent to a 2.6% decline. The indictment of a case at Bao Tin Minh Chau and tighter controls on the use of foreign currency in unofficial exchanges are expected to help cool the free USD price.

State Bank sets slightly lower reference rates

On April 6, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the USD/VND rate at 25,106 VND, down 1 VND from 25,107 on April 3. The ceiling rate also eased from 26,362 to 26,361 VND.

This modest adjustment suggests the regulator remains focused on stabilizing the foreign exchange market.

Banks’ posted rates remain steady near the ceiling

A survey of USD/VND rates at 32 commercial banks on the afternoon of April 6 showed relatively stable posted rates, with a narrow spread for both buying and selling.

Most banks quoted transfer-buy USD around 26,141–26,176 VND, while selling was around 26,361–26,362 VND, close to the ceiling. OCB led the market with a transfer-buy rate of 26,217 VND, the highest among banks. HSBC followed at 26,186 VND and VPBank at 26,176 VND.

On the selling side, MSB quoted the lowest price at 26,357 VND, about 4–5 VND below most other banks. OCB also had the smallest buy–sell gap at 144 VND per USD, while NCB had the largest gap, up to 341 VND per USD.

Overall, the rate structure on April 6 grouped banks such as OCB, HSBC, VPBank and MSB with relatively balanced buy–sell spreads for both buying and selling USD.

Cash market rates drop

In the afternoon of April 6, the cash market buy rate was 27,300 VND, down 180 VND from April 3 (27,480) and down 730 VND from March 31 (28,030). The cash market sell rate was 27,350 VND, down 170 VND from April 3 (27,520) and down 730 VND from March 31 (28,080).

From March 31 to April 6, the free USD price declined by about 2.6% on both buy and sell. The free rate is currently 989 to 1,000 VND higher than bank rates.

What is driving the free USD decline

Analysts cited gold-smuggling activity as a key factor behind higher USD demand in the black market, which can spill over into the official exchange rate. In addition, non-official digital asset transactions also absorb a large amount of USD cash from the free market.

As authorities tighten checks on gold and forex trading, prosecute Bao Tin Minh Chau, and gradually bring digital asset trading under more transparent regulation, speculative sentiment in the free market appears to ease. This contributed to the sharp drop in free USD prices in the first week of April and supports stability in the broader forex market.

Global USD signals: DXY eases but trend remains uncertain

On April 6, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.3% from the previous session to 99.78, indicating the international USD is easing after several sessions around the 100 level. The DXY tracks the USD’s strength against a basket of major currencies including the EUR, JPY and GBP; when it falls, global USD pressure typically eases, which can help domestic USD/VND rates.

However, the decline is not large enough to confirm a clear weakening trend. The USD’s strength still reflects relative strength in the U.S. economy. March jobs data showed the U.S. added 178,000 new jobs, reversing February’s loss of 133,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market—factors that typically support the USD and make near-term declines in USD/VND less likely.

Key risk for the week: U.S. CPI

Tensions in the Middle East remain a factor to monitor. If oil prices and input costs rise sharply again, U.S. inflation could heat up, increasing the market’s expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high. In that scenario, the DXY could rebound above 100 and put more pressure on USD/VND.

The focus this week is the U.S. March CPI. If inflation prints stronger than forecast, the DXY is likely to rise, creating significant pressure on USD/VND.