U.S. stocks rise for the fourth straight session as oil prices edge higher amid ceasefire hopes

US stocks rose for the fourth consecutive session on Monday (April 6), with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak as investors weighed signs that the US-Iran conflict could be nearing a pause. Oil prices edged higher but stayed near elevated levels as the Hormuz Strait remained closed by Iran.

Stocks climb as investors weigh cease-fire prospects

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,611.83 for a fourth straight session. The Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 21,996.34, while the Dow added 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to 46,669.88.

Market sentiment was supported by an Axios report that the US, Iran, and several intermediary countries are discussing terms for a potential 45-day cease-fire that could lead to a permanent end to the conflict. The report said the odds of a partial agreement before a deadline set by President Trump remain fragile, and that a 45-day cease-fire is only one of several proposals under consideration.

Cease-fire proposals and the Hormuz deadline

Reuters reported that Iran and the US have received a plan to end hostilities that, if agreed, would include an immediate cease-fire and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. The plan was described as being laid out by Pakistan, according to sources.

Separately, President Trump issued a new ultimatum to Iran last weekend, warning he would attack Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure if it does not open the Hormuz Strait by 8 pm Tuesday (April 7) US Eastern Time (early Wednesday, April 8, Vietnam time). Speaking at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran had submitted a cease-fire proposal but that, in his view, “it’s not good enough.” He added: “They have put forward a proposal. It is an important proposal; a significant step. The proposal is not good enough but is a very important step. They are negotiating… let’s see what happens.”

Iran seeks a durable end to hostilities

Iran has said it wants a durable end to the war with the US and Israel rather than a temporary cease-fire. Iranian state media reported that Iran sent Pakistan, a mediator in Washington-Tehran talks, a formal 10-point proposal. The proposal includes “a protocol for safe transit through the Hormuz Strait, reconstruction, and sanctions relief,” according to the report.

Oil prices rise; volatility stays elevated

In energy markets, crude prices were choppy during the session before settling higher. WTI futures finished up 0.78% at $112.41 per barrel, while Brent rose 0.68% to $109.77 per barrel.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained above 24, higher than the typical 13–20 range seen in calmer markets.

Supply disruption and estimates of oil shortages

The Hormuz Strait closure has driven what the article described as the largest disruption to oil supply in history. Relative to pre-war levels, Brent has risen about 53%. The report also said jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline prices have increased.

TD Securities and Rapidan Energy forecasts

TD Securities estimated that by the end of April the world will lose nearly 1 billion barrels of oil due to the US-Iran conflict, including 600 million barrels of crude oil and about 350 million barrels of refined products.

A Rapidan Energy report estimated that by the end of June the global net shortage of oil and refined products will be around 630 million barrels, after accounting for pipeline substitutions, releases from strategic reserves, and stock draws.

Market view: energy shock may last longer

Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, said in an interview with CNBC that the impact of the conflict on the global economy may be underappreciated in the short to medium term. He added that the energy shock could keep oil prices higher for longer than expected.