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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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Stock dividend payouts have become a broader strategic choice beyond simple cash distribution. They reflect long-term capital, growth, and risk management considerations in a changing environment. During the 2026 AGM season, spanning banks to large listed firms, there is a marked tilt toward stock dividends, attracting investor attention. The wave…
GDP growth in Q1 2026 is estimated at 7.83%, reflecting efforts in macroeconomic management and resilience in overcoming difficulties. Growth is relatively balanced across three key sectors: agriculture, forestry and fishery rose 3.58%; industry and construction increased 8.92%; and services grew 8.18%.
Breaking down growth by supply and demand shows both bright spots and uneven recovery.
On the supply side, growth remains concentrated in a limited number of core sectors, while several areas have not yet rebounded as expected. Agriculture-forestry-fishery continues to act as a stabilizing anchor. Processing and manufacturing remain the main “driving locomotive,” rising 9.73% and contributing the largest share of overall growth, at 2.57 percentage points.
The recovery is linked to improved export orders and production capacity, particularly in electronics, textiles and metal manufacturing. The mining sector also stands out, maintaining positive growth since Q4 2025 at 5.42%.
In services, domestic demand recovery is visible in wholesale, retail and car/motorcycle repair services, which rose 9.62% and contributed 1.15 percentage points. High-knowledge services—such as professional science, technology and education—also grow steadily, indicating a shift toward higher-quality growth.
However, several important sectors still underperform relative to expectations: construction rose 8.36%; transport and warehousing increased 8.95%; accommodation and food service grew 7.49%; real estate trading remained subdued at 4.71%; information and communications rose 7.65%; and administrative and support services increased 7.06%.
On the demand side, domestic consumption is a bright spot, up 8.45%. Final consumption by the State surged 11.66%, reflecting expanded budget spending for key political-administrative tasks, including organizing the 14th National Party Congress, elections, and post-merger administrative costs. Household final consumption rose 7.95%, supported by seasonal effects from the extended Lunar New Year holidays.
The consumption structure is also shifting toward modern and more sustainable patterns, prioritizing environmentally friendly products (including electric vehicles and energy-saving devices) and experiential services (travel and entertainment).
Asset accumulation grew 7.18%, supported by efforts to disburse public capital and expand production. However, investment efficiency and spillover effects remain limited, providing less of a boost to related sectors.
In external trade, both imports and exports rose strongly: exports increased 19.1% and imports grew 27.0%. Faster import growth than exports points to input demand for production recovery, but also highlights a structural constraint: domestic value-added remains thin and the economy remains heavily dependent on imported materials.
Overall, Q1 2026 growth is still driven mainly by traditional engines—manufacturing/export activity, investment, and domestic consumption. New drivers such as science and technology and the digital economy have improved but have not yet become leading forces.
Although 7.83% growth is positive, the gap with the target suggests internal strength is not yet robust enough to break through. Key headwinds identified include:
Public investment is described as a strategic engine for growth. In the first three months of 2026, disbursement totaled 133.2 trillion dong, up 12.1% year-on-year and equal to 14.5% of the annual plan.
The budget plan was reviewed and allocated at 100%, tied to monthly and quarterly accountability. The disbursement rate of 14.5% fell short of an initial expectation of 20%, but was attributed to seasonal factors: Q1 is mainly a period for projects carried over from 2025, while new projects’ 2026 capital allocations are still being finalized. The extended Lunar New Year holiday in February also affected progress.
Despite the slower start, the 133.2 trillion dong injection contributed to the 7.83% GDP growth. Spillover effects include direct momentum for construction materials—such as steel, cement, sand, stone and machinery—especially from nationally significant transport infrastructure projects. Activity at large sites also supports construction firms and creates employment. Once completed, transport infrastructure is expected to improve the investment environment, mobilize social resources, attract private domestic investment and FDI, and support long-term growth in 2026 and beyond.
The Q1 2026 report indicates continued volatility in the formation of new enterprises and market exits. The retreat of tens of thousands of enterprises is described as reflecting a “harsh cleansing and deep restructuring” rather than only mechanical figures.
Wholesale and retail, auto and motorbike repair saw the leading wave of withdrawal, with nearly 24.6 thousand enterprises temporarily shuttered and 4.4 thousand dissolved. Construction recorded about 8.6 thousand temporarily shuttered and 819 dissolved. Processing and manufacturing saw nearly 7.4 thousand temporarily shuttered and more than 1.25 thousand dissolved.
Barriers from domestic demand recovery are described as slow. In the Q1 2026 manufacturing survey, up to 30.1% of processing and manufacturing enterprises cited weak demand as the main difficulty, up from 20.9% in Q1 2025. In addition, 48.9% of enterprises reported strong pressure from domestic rivals.
Cost-up shocks are also weighing on production and business. After the Middle East conflict escalated from late February 2026, Brent crude rose above $110 per barrel, increasing global shipping costs. As a result, 27.3% of manufacturing firms faced input shortages, up 7.6 percentage points versus the previous quarter. In construction, 70.1% of contractors reported difficulties due to high material costs.
Pressure is also linked to fragmented orders and prolonged debt burdens. While the FDI sector (especially electronics and optics) maintains stable orders due to global product cycles, domestic firms struggle to secure contracts. Notably, 44.6% of construction enterprises lack new contracts and 25.2% are at risk due to unresolved infrastructure debt.
Despite enterprise exits, the market also recorded 96 thousand new enterprises and re-entries, up 31.7% year-on-year, suggesting the economy is in a “cocoon break” phase of cleansing. The policy challenge is described as requiring targeted measures, including stabilizing energy, clearing debt, and cooling logistics.
The Middle East conflict affected the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Q1 2026 only indirectly through transportation costs (shipping and aviation), making direct pass-through to CPI manageable.
In aggregate, CPI rose 3.51% year-on-year in Q1 2026. The main inflation drivers were housing and building materials (about 5.7%) and food and services (4.5%). Pork prices rose due to high feed costs and tight supply during holidays.
Core inflation rose 3.63% in Q1 2026, modestly higher than overall CPI. This was attributed to food prices—previously offsetting CPI—being excluded from the core basket.
The article projects that average CPI for 2026 will hover around 4.5–5.5%. To anchor inflation within the target, it proposes six core policy measures: coordinating the schedule and timing of state-controlled price increases; monitoring global energy price movements and using taxes, fees and the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund flexibly; diversifying supply of strategic goods; controlling domestic transport costs and curbing speculation to prevent unreasonable price hikes; continuing active monetary policy management by the State Bank of Vietnam in coordination with fiscal policy; and improving transparency in price-management information to stabilize inflation expectations.
Given Vietnam’s high openness, risks include supply chain disruptions for imported materials and potential demand decline from export markets. However, the most immediate and acute risk in the short term (Q2) is described as potential disruptions to input supply chains for imported materials.
Because the economy relies heavily on inputs—from electronics components and chemicals to plastics and textile raw materials—a logistics shock could quickly disrupt production, delay orders, reduce export capacity, and affect short-term GDP growth. Demand risks from the US or EU are described as cyclical with a lag, giving enterprises some time to pivot to new markets via FTAs. If the risk persists, it could undermine sustainable export growth.
For Q2 macro-management, the top tasks identified are securing input supply sources, stabilizing energy security and logistics, and closely monitoring global demand to respond with appropriate policy.
From the Q1 2026 data, the long-term view presented is that the economy is adjusting and cleansing, with emphasis on stabilizing energy, debt and logistics, and pursuing higher value-added sectors and more efficient investment to sustain growth in 2026 and beyond.
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