Vietnamese coffee prices fall as Brazil's bumper harvest weighs on global markets; farmers advised not to hold back for peak prices.

Vietnamese coffee prices fall as Brazil experiences bumper harvest; should farmers hold back supply waiting for peak prices? Forecasts for coffee prices in the near term are unlikely to rise sharply due to the large supply pressure from Brazil, with domestic green coffee around 90,000 dong per kg. By late April 2026, coffee prices in the Central Highlands had fallen sharply. Brazil's bumper harvest and abundant global supply have capped the rally. In light of this, experts warn farmers not to take the risk of withholding supply waiting for peak prices to protect profits. Supply increase pushes coffee prices to reverse course Market surveys as of April 28 show coffee in the Tây Nguyên (Central Highlands) trading around 86,500–87,000 dong/kg, officially breaking the rally. On international exchanges from London to New York, red is dominant as financial investors rush to sell to take profits and reduce risk. Detailed explanation: International analytics firms forecast Brazil's harvest this year to be bumper, with production around 75 million bags, up about 10.3 million bags from last year. Meanwhile, Vietnam and other producers generally maintain production and show slight growth. Abundant supply has directly blocked price increases, Mr. Hai explains. Additionally, in April, competitor Indonesia began harvest, adding to supply pressure; the export picture shows consequences. According to VICOFA, in the first four months of the year, Vietnam's coffee exports continued to grow versus the same period, but export value declined due to falling export prices, creating the paradox 'rising volume, falling value' for the sector. Profit-taking remains the safest shield Despite heavy selling pressure, coffee prices are forecast not to fall freely thanks to some supports. Nguyen Nam Hai identifies two main factors damping the decline: first, geopolitical tensions around the Hormuz Strait disrupt supply chains, keeping shipping and insurance costs high; second, El Niño risks in Asia; drought and heat through July could threaten crops in Vietnam, Indonesia, and India. With the complex interplay of weather, logistics, and speculation, coffee prices in the near term are expected to hover around 90,000 dong/kg rather than drop sharply, according to Ha. However, a sideways price level does not guarantee a good speculative opportunity. Facing unpredictable swings, coffee traders urge farmers not to take the risk of withholding supply. A representative of a coffee processing-export company emphasizes that farmers should not hold back waiting for peak prices. In reality, at current prices, farmers still enjoy strong profit margins as input costs and production have remained stable for three years. Coffee export prices decline According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in March 2026 coffee exports were estimated at 210,000 tons, worth over 956 million USD. For Q1 2026, coffee exports reached 577,300 tons with value over 2.7 billion USD, up 13% in volume but down 6.4% in value compared with the same period in 2025. The main reason is a sharp fall in the average export price in Q1-2026, to about 4,697 USD/ton, down 17% from Q1-2025.