Vietnam's central bank deputy governor discusses interest rate, exchange rate, and credit developments in Q1 2026

On the afternoon of April 14, the State Bank of Vietnam (NHNN) held a press briefing to announce the results of banking operations for the first quarter of 2026.

Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha said that in the early months of 2026 the global environment remained complex and unpredictable. Geopolitical tensions—especially the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East—put pressure on commodity markets and international financial markets. Oil prices rose, supply chains were disrupted, and central banks reacted cautiously to the risk of inflation accelerating again. With high interest-rate levels and demand for safe-haven assets, the US dollar strengthened, creating pressure on monetary policy management in emerging and developing economies with open, developing economic structures such as Vietnam.

Vietnam’s macro backdrop and monetary policy stance

Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s economy in Q1 2026 recorded 7.83% year-on-year GDP growth (Q1 2025: 7.07%), reflecting resilience amid global uncertainties. Macroeconomic stability continued, with inflation under control: CPI rose 3.51% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and core inflation increased 3.63%.

The Deputy Governor said monetary policy management and banking sector operations contributed to the outcome. NHNN implemented monetary policy flexibly and proactively in March and throughout Q1 2026, in line with directives from the Party, National Assembly, Government, and Prime Minister, and in close coordination with expansionary fiscal policy and other macro policies. The aim is to keep inflation around 4.5% in 2026 and support macro stability and growth at or above 10%.

During policy-rate operations, NHNN kept policy rates unchanged in the early months of 2026 to allow banks to access funds from NHNN at low cost to support the economy. NHNN also directed banks to continue publishing lending rates on their websites to inform customers when accessing loans.

Funding costs and interest-rate transmission

In addition to direct guidance, NHNN issued Circular No. 2342/NHNN-CSTT, requiring credit institutions and foreign branches to implement measures to stabilize market funding costs. After the April 9 meeting, banks broadly agreed to lower market lending rates. Since then, about 26 banks have reduced listed deposit rates by around 0.1–0.5% per year, mainly for tenors of six months or longer, creating a basis for lower lending rates to support growth.

Exchange-rate management and FX market stability

On exchange-rate management, NHNN leadership noted that from the start of 2026 to date the foreign exchange market has remained stable. The USD/VND rate generally trended downward before the Lunar New Year as external pressures eased and foreign-exchange supply and demand improved.

However, the FX market continues to face pressures from global developments and domestic constraints. NHNN said it uses flexible exchange-rate management and macro policy tools to stabilize the FX market, supporting macro stability and inflation control. As a result, the FX market operates smoothly, legitimate foreign currency demand from the economy is met promptly, and USD/VND movements remain flexible and aligned with market conditions.

Credit growth target and sectoral credit direction

A new point for 2026 is the projection that system-wide credit growth will be about 15%, with possible adjustments depending on developments to ensure inflation control, macro stability, and the safety of credit institutions.

NHNN said proactive communications with credit institutions—publicly disclosing targets and principles for 2026—help banks implement them. NHNN also requires credit institutions to strictly manage credit growth in potentially risky sectors, especially real estate, to channel lending toward productive activities, prioritized sectors, and growth drivers, while ensuring liquidity and system safety.

Credit measures targeting key sectors remain active to direct credit toward production and growth drivers as directed by the Government and Prime Minister, including improving access to bank credit for production.

Disbursement under government programs

Some sectors with large shares of total credit continued to grow. Banks actively disbursed under government programs, including forestry and seafood credit, expanding the program from VND 15 trillion to VND 185 trillion. The Mekong Delta high-quality rice production and low-emission programs were also expanded and coordinated with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to address challenges. By the end of February 2026, cumulative disbursement under the program stood at about VND 3.6 trillion.

Other programs include social housing loans; loans for young people under 35 to buy, rent, or rent-to-own social housing; the VND 500 trillion credit program for infrastructure investment and digital technology; and other policy credit programs, which are being actively rolled out.

“With these integrated measures, by March 31, 2026, system-wide credit outstanding reached over VND 19.18 quadrillion, up 3.18% from end-2025,” the Deputy Governor reported.

Gold market monitoring and governance

On the gold market, the Deputy Governor said gold prices remained high in the first three months of 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, and rising global strategic competition. NHNN continues to monitor domestic and international gold markets and implements rules under Decree 24/2012/ND-CP (as amended by Decree 232/2025/ND-CP dated August 26, 2025), coordinating with relevant authorities to strengthen governance and stabilize the gold market as needed.

Payments, digital transformation, and customer data verification

In payments and digital transformation, NHNN said it continues to refine the legal framework to enable non-cash payments, promote digital banking, and ensure security in payment operations, helping households and businesses access more services and modern payment methods.

As a result, the non-cash payment market continues to develop. The value of non-cash payments in 2025 was about 28 times GDP. In the first two months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025, non-cash payment transactions rose 40.74% in volume and 13.41% in value.

NHNN is also coordinating with the Ministry of Public Security to implement Plan 06, including cleaning data, verifying information, and conducting biometric checks of customers to support operations and enhance service quality and security. By April 3, 2026, the banking sector had processed biometric verification for more than 153.09 million individual customer records and more than 1.94 million organizational records.

Banking restructuring and risk management

The briefing also highlighted that banking sector restructuring and bad-debt resolution remain priorities, with the sector’s stability and depositors’ rights protected.