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In macroeconomics, nominal GDP and GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) capture different aspects of economic size. For Vietnam, IMF forecasts indicate that PPP-based rankings in Southeast Asia will rise faster than nominal GDP rankings, producing a different picture depending on the metric used.
According to the IMF, six major Southeast Asian economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—are seeing notable shifts in their rankings, particularly in PPP terms.
In 2026, Vietnam’s PPP GDP is forecast to reach about USD 2.030 trillion. This would officially surpass Thailand to take second place in ASEAN, behind Indonesia, which is forecast to have PPP GDP of about USD 5.450 trillion. Vietnam is the only economy in the group besides Indonesia with PPP GDP above USD 2 trillion in 2026.
By 2031, Vietnam’s PPP GDP is forecast to be more than USD 500 billion higher than Thailand, widening the gap with Malaysia and the Philippines and reinforcing Vietnam’s position as the second-largest economy in ASEAN.
The forecasts also suggest Vietnam is increasingly surpassing Singapore in economic size on a PPP basis. However, Singapore is expected to remain the absolute leader in GDP per capita. By 2031, Vietnam’s PPP GDP is forecast to be more than 2.2 times Singapore’s.
Nominal GDP (or GDP at current prices) is often used to describe a country’s annual economic output in a common currency using market exchange rates. In contrast, GDP (PPP) adjusts for differences in local price levels, allowing for more direct cross-country comparisons of the volume of goods and services produced.
Because PPP accounts for price level differences, it reduces the influence of exchange rate movements on international comparisons.
IMF data show that in 2026 Vietnam’s nominal GDP is forecast to reach about USD 527.27 billion, ranking fourth among the ASEAN-6. This would place Vietnam ahead of Malaysia (USD 516.43 billion) and the Philippines (USD 512.22 billion). Thailand’s nominal GDP in 2026 is projected at around USD 580 billion.
The IMF projects that by 2028, Vietnam’s nominal GDP could surpass Thailand’s. Specifically, Vietnam’s nominal GDP is forecast to reach about USD 594.83 billion in 2028, ranking third in the ASEAN-6 behind Indonesia (USD 1.79 trillion) and Singapore (USD 722 billion). Thailand’s nominal GDP in 2028 is expected to be around USD 580 billion.
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