Viewpoint 10/04: continued volatility and divergence?

According to VPBank Securities (VPBankS), ongoing volatility and dispersion are likely to persist in upcoming sessions, particularly as uncertainty around easing in the Middle East continues to weigh on investor sentiment.

VN-Index: Consolidation and key support levels

SHS said the VN-Index’s near-term trend is consolidating within a tight range. Support is around 1,680 points, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, while resistance is around 1,750. This resistance also aligns with the lowest price in February 2026 and the high during the sharp drop on 09/03/2026. SHS noted that a strong fundamental impulse would be needed to expect a breakout above this level.

In the short term, the index needs momentum to retest the nearest support at 1,700–1,720.

Cause: Profit-taking, liquidity softening, and noisy signals

VPBankS reported that on 09/04, the VN-Index fell again as profit-taking pressure increased. Bottom-fishing stocks reportedly carried profits to accounts, while liquidity declined somewhat. VPBankS said price movements appeared differentiated, with no clear consensus.

In this environment, VPBankS added that technical indicators of strength may have limited meaning and signals could become noisier and less reliable. It also said the VN-Index is below MA50 and MA100 on the daily chart, although it reclaimed these levels on 08/04.

Development: Retesting after the first decline

Asean said the VN-Index is entering a phase of retesting the prior breakout after the first decline on 09/04. The index closed at 1,736.68 points, down 1.13%. The candlestick structure suggests short-term profit-taking pressure, and the index failed to hold its intraday highs.

On the positive side, Asean noted that despite the correction on higher liquidity, the index remains above MA5, MA10, MA20, MA150 and MA200, indicating the short-term uptrend is still intact. However, it said the retreat below MA50 and the close near the day’s low suggest the market may need more time to absorb supply rather than continuing to rise.

Data and scenarios for 10/04

Asean’s high-probability scenario for 10/04 is that the VN-Index continues to swing and tests the 1,720–1,730 support range. If this area holds, the index could retest 1,740–1,750 and potentially 1,760–1,770.

BSC said the near-term outlook remains uncertain and investors should trade cautiously. If conditions improve, it expects the index to move toward the 1,840 target of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern after short-term consolidation. BSC also highlighted resistance near 1,750.

VikkiBankS said the market is testing resistance around 1,750 with a cautious mood amid geopolitics. It recommended keeping portfolio reviews, monitoring money flow between sectors, and favoring stocks with solid fundamentals for Q2 2026.

Impact and investor guidance

SHS said the broader trend is improving and recovering after the decline, but the area is not considered particularly attractive due to persistent inflation pressure and high global oil prices. It added that even if the Hormuz Strait returns to normal, it would take time for supply to resume after the conflict.

SHS suggested investors may consider increasing exposure during periods of cooled geopolitical tensions, based on expectations of a market upgrade and Q1 2026 earnings results, but only by buying at lower support levels when the market corrects.

Asean advised short-term investors to maintain a stock allocation of 45–60%, focus on strong names, avoid chasing new buys, and only increase positions after successful retests.

VPBankS concluded that the process of volatility and divergence is expected to continue in upcoming sessions, especially as Middle East tensions remain uncertain and continue to affect sentiment.