VN-30 stock MSN forecast Q1 earnings growth in triple digits as foreign investors net-buy leads the market

Shares of Masan Group (MSN) have climbed into the top three stocks with the strongest foreign net purchases in the market year to date, according to recent trading data. Foreign investors have recorded net buying worth “trillions of dong,” with some sessions showing net purchases of several hundred billion dong. The inflow is being linked not only to short-term capital flows, but also to a shift in foreign investors’ assessment of the company’s business platform and long-term prospects.

Foreign capital returns as Vietnam upgrade approaches

The renewed buying comes as Vietnam is set to be upgraded by FTSE Russell to a secondary emerging market effective from September 2026. In this context, stocks with solid fundamentals and clearer growth narratives are increasingly viewed as preferred targets for foreign capital. Market participants note that international funds often deploy capital ahead of index-related events to position for potential ETF inflows once the upgrade becomes official.

While several large-cap stocks remain under selling pressure, MSN has maintained steady accumulation. Sustained net buying suggests a longer-term view as profitability growth and valuation dynamics begin to align.

Three business segments support a new growth cycle

Cash inflows are also tied to improvements across MSN’s three core business areas: consumer, retail, and advanced materials.

Consumer: Masan Consumer revenue rises

In the consumer segment, Masan Consumer (HOSE: MCH) reported revenue for the first two months of 2026 of about VND 5,160 billion, up more than 15% year-on-year. Growth was attributed to both an expansion in points of sale and higher value per sale through the Retail Supreme distribution model. The number of points of sale increased to around 420,000, while average SKUs per order rose sharply, indicating improved distribution efficiency.

Retail: WinCommerce expands and shifts toward efficiency

In retail, WinCommerce posted revenue for the first two months of 2026 of about VND 7,872 billion, up over 30% year-on-year. The company opened 145 new stores, bringing total points of sale to roughly 4,700 nationwide. The strategy is described as shifting from pure scale expansion toward optimizing operational efficiency—an issue that has been central to evaluating modern retail models at scale.

Advanced materials: MSR benefits from a favorable tungsten cycle

High-tech materials are also cited as a key driver. Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR) is benefiting from a favorable structural cycle in the minerals market. By the end of April 2026, the price of APT (an intermediate tungsten material) rose to over USD 3,000 per mtu, well above last year’s average. The increase is linked to tighter supply outside China, alongside growing demand from sectors including semiconductors, AI, and defense.

With tightening supply outside China, MSR is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset in the global supply chain. MSR, which owns the Nui Phao mine—one of the largest tungsten mines outside China—is positioned to benefit. The company targets after-tax profit in 2026 of VND 1,700–2,500 billion, representing a meaningful improvement from the previous base. Given MSN’s stake in MSR, the article notes that MSN could see a significant profit contribution if mineral price trends remain supportive.

Brokerage forecasts point to strong profit growth

Expectations from brokerages reflect the improvement across MSN’s segments. SSI Research forecasts MSN to post after-tax profit of around VND 2,500 billion in Q1 2026, up more than 150% year-on-year, placing it among the market’s top growth rates.

Analysts have also raised expectations for MSN. VCBS set a target price of around VND 111,421 per share, indicating confidence in earnings growth and the potential for a valuation re-rating in the new cycle.

What to watch next

While future quarterly results will be a key test, the current picture suggests MSN is entering a phase where the growth story is no longer driven by a single segment. Instead, it is supported by the convergence of the broader ecosystem—consumption, retail, and strategic resources—operating in sync.

Minh Tài, FILI, 13:30 14/04/2026.