VN-Index seen recovering soon on growth momentum as government intensifies growth measures

The overall context is tilted toward a continued recovery as the government is actively implementing groups of measures to sustain the growth target. The Middle East conflict between the United States and Iran remains with major disagreements, especially after negotiations failed and the United States declared a blockade of the Hormuz Strait. On April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly paused hostilities with Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran opening the Hormuz Strait and for both sides to commence peace talks. However, on April 12, after talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would blockade the Hormuz Strait. While the market reacted negatively to these developments, the two-week détente beginning on April 7, 2026 is expected to support a short-term rally in global equities. For the domestic market, according to BSC Securities, the overall outlook remains tilted toward continued recovery as the government is actively implementing groups of solutions to maintain the growth target. The VN-Index has formed a double bottom near the MA200, with leadership in the market, the peak season of the shareholders’ meetings, and a run of upcoming earnings reports to be published. Yet the market will face resistance around 1,760–1,770 points, with profit-taking pressure despite relatively robust profit margins after three weeks of gains, presenting opportunities for investors to rotate their portfolios toward market-leading stocks. In terms of liquidity and sectors, although last week’s liquidity was only comparable to the previous week (market-wide liquidity matched at about 22.65 trillion dong), this remains the lowest since the start of the year, yet funds continue to shift from commodity and defensive stocks toward market-oriented stocks such as residential real estate, securities, and groups tied to the business cycle or with strong macro/internal drivers such as banks, public investment, VinGroup, construction and building materials. Data show that last week’s cash flow drifted toward banks, securities, residential real estate, construction and materials, seafood, public investment, and technology. Capital concentration rose notably in groups such as banks (reaching a seven-week high), securities (three-week high), and public investment (four-week high). Overall, the VN-Index’s rebound has been led by stocks, forming a driver that could push the market above the important resistance around 1,770. Technically, the VN-Index is in the gap region around 1,758–1,768 points created by the sharp -115 point drop on 9 March. The index tested 1,763 but closed near the week’s low, signaling strong resistance in this gap region. Thus, movements in the 1,763–1,768 area will determine the market’s trend in the coming weeks. A positive scenario would be a breakout through this zone, similar to what happened at the end of December 2025, while a cautious scenario would see a pullback as in the two prior instances (October and early December 2025). Therefore, resistance is around 1,768 with support near 1,720. Investors should consider buying or restructuring portfolios during pullbacks toward the 1,720–1,730 support zone, avoiding chasing prices during sharp rallies (especially when the VN-Index trades above 1,768). Focus on midcaps or stocks currently attracting capital such as securities, real estate, banks, construction and building materials, and Vingroup. VNDirect Securities notes that in the past week, the U.S. stock market continued to recover as the three major indices rose, aided by improved investor sentiment after prior volatility. Together with the market’s disregard for the short-term impact of high CPI data, inflationary pressures mainly stemming from energy and not significantly altering the Fed’s policy path. These factors helped improve risk appetite, prompting capital back into equities. The VN-Index continued its positive rebound with a 3.92% weekly gain, marking the third straight week of gains. Gains were broad across all cap segments, with large-cap stocks up 4.94%, mid-cap up 4.7%, and small-cap up 1.33%, indicating money favors stocks with solid fundamentals and liquidity. Technically, according to KBSV, the VN-Index continued a third week of recovery, forming a bullish Marubozu candle, suggesting that accumulation momentum is overriding. On the daily chart, after two days of correction with volume waning early in the week, the index surged through nearby resistance with strong volume, confirming the short-term uptrend. Although the medium-term trend remains neutral for now and volatility pressures may reappear this week, the VN-Index is likely to continue its recovery before facing stronger resistance above. Individual investors net bought 3,500 billion in the week; Vietnam’s stock market officially upgraded.