Web3 Thoughts of the Week: Bitcoin, Treasury Management, CLARITY Act & More

Web3 investors and executives focused this week on the proposed CLARITY Act, Bitcoin’s market direction, digital-asset treasury management, and broader macro factors influencing crypto.

CLARITY Act: push for regulatory clarity

Supporters of the CLARITY Act argue it would end years of uncertainty created by the SEC’s “regulation-by-enforcement” approach, which they say has chilled innovation and pushed talent and businesses offshore.

In their view, clearer rules would enable institutional adoption and support tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), along with bank-based custody and mainstream integration. They also point to “DeFi and validator safe harbors” and a workable CFTC pathway for decentralized assets as key elements.

Yield restrictions and bank concerns

A central focus is the bill’s yield restriction, which some see as a short-term compromise for longer-term regulatory certainty. Banks and trade groups have warned that unrestricted stablecoin rewards could pull large sums out of the traditional banking system, reducing lending capacity. Estimates cited in the discussion ranged from $500 billion to $6.6 trillion. The current draft is described as closing a perceived loophole.

Supporters say the approach would “level the playing field” by preventing stablecoins from functioning as interest-bearing deposits outside regulated banking. They also note that RIA’s may be an exception because, as fiduciaries, they can advise clients on tapping DeFi yields directly.

What passage would change

According to comments attributed to Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra, the bill would bring crypto activity under federal oversight, which banks view as stabilizing for the broader financial system. He also said the draft would provide clearer paths for crypto custody and tokenization services, while allowing banks to participate in digital-asset markets without competing against non-bank products framed as unfair.

Barhydt added that passage still requires Senate action and possible House-Senate reconciliation.

Nakamoto reportedly sells Bitcoin at a loss

Concerns are also rising in the digital asset treasury (DAT) market. One view presented this week is that Nakamoto may be among the first to offload some Bitcoin at a loss as the bear market continues, raising “contagion risk.”

Nic Puckrin, co-founder and CEO of Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin’s price could remain below $70,000 for some time and could fall further into a $55,700–$58,200 range in the coming weeks. He linked ongoing weakness to additional pressure on DATs, which could exacerbate sell-offs.

Bitcoin: range trading, macro sensitivity, and key levels

Multiple analysts described Bitcoin as trading in a range rather than showing a clean risk-on signal. One assessment cited spot holding around $67,685 alongside exchange outflows as suggesting underlying accumulation, while options positioning into end-of-week expiry was described as reflecting uncertainty more than conviction.

Nicolai Søndergaard of Nansen said derivatives flows after Trump-Iran headlines were interpreted as tactical de-risking rather than a structural exit. He also argued that near-term direction may depend more on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Friday’s jobs report than on any single crypto-specific signal.

In that framework, a hotter jobs print could increase downside pressure through rates repricing, while a softer print could allow spot prices more room to move. Søndergaard said attention should shift from $65,000 toward the $60,000 area, which he described as closer to the 200-week moving average and the lower end of the prior range.

Oversold conditions and timing uncertainty

Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, said investors should not rely too heavily on a “Bitcoin Impact Index,” noting it may indicate oversold conditions but that other indicators are showing similar signals. He added that oversold status does not rule out further declines, and that the duration could range from a week to several months.

Link between Bitcoin and tech stocks

Lienkha also highlighted a perceived connection between Bitcoin and equity markets, especially software companies. He said Bitcoin often moves in line with stock markets over the long term, particularly with the S&P 500, but can diverge during certain periods. He cited an example from October to February, when Bitcoin fell while the index stayed near highs, and said some stock groups—such as software companies—may show a stronger correlation with Bitcoin than the overall index.

Recent rebound and remaining risks

Another market view described Bitcoin as having advanced in recent days, surpassing a $69,300 threshold and posting gains of over 5% this week. The rebound was attributed to renewed risk appetite across global markets, including comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a possible end to the conflict with Iran in the coming weeks.

That analysis said Bitcoin’s recovery followed relatively subdued performance in March and that the cryptocurrency has outperformed traditional assets such as gold since the onset of the Middle East conflict. It also pointed to ongoing uncertainty, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where the potential reopening remains unclear.

The same commentary linked energy uncertainty to inflation expectations: higher oil prices can raise inflationary pressures, influencing central bank policy. It argued that restrictive monetary conditions could remain in place longer than previously expected, which would be a headwind for speculative assets including cryptocurrencies.

From a monetary perspective, the analysis said the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance with no clear signals of imminent rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. It added that other central banks are also maintaining a cautious tone, keeping financial conditions relatively tight.

It further noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets could limit upside if financial conditions tighten again. The commentary also referenced longer-term structural concerns, including warnings from the tech sector about advances in quantum computing and the potential future impact on cryptographic systems.

ETH staking and treasury management

On treasury optimization, one view said crypto organizations are trying to improve how they manage their treasuries, but that the significance depends on the size of holdings relative to total token supply. The commentary said 70,000 ETH was considered too small a share of supply to draw major conclusions, but that if a larger portion of supply were affected, it could have broader ecosystem risks.