Bitcoin price prediction as US-Iran considers a 45-day ceasefire

Bitcoin rose slightly on Monday after a report said the US and Iran were considering a longer ceasefire that could lead to the end of the war. BTC traded at $69,165 on Monday, up from the weekend low of $66,000.

Ceasefire talks and market reaction

US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire, according to a report by Axios citing Barak Ravid. The proposal was reportedly made by top negotiators, with Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey also involved.

The news followed comments from Trump to Fox News suggesting the US and Iran could reach an agreement as soon as Tuesday. However, Ravid cautioned that the chances of a deal are slim, citing Iran’s view that it has the upper hand as Trump appears more pressured, including a profanity-laden Truth Social post urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

War risks and potential implications

Trump has threatened a major attack in Iran focused on bridges and power plants, which is considered a war crime. Iran has indicated that such a move would escalate tensions, while pointing to potential infrastructure actions in other Middle East countries.

Bitcoin could benefit if the war ends, the article said, citing two main channels: reduced fear and volatility that typically supports risk assets, and lower crude oil prices.

It also noted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has risen to $112 and has “flipped” Brent, the global benchmark. Lower energy prices could help reduce inflation pressures as the Iran conflict continues.

Inflation outlook and ETF catalyst

Data compiled by Investing.com projects the upcoming US inflation report will show the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.4% in March from 2.4% previously.

Bitcoin is also rising ahead of the April 8 launch of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, described as the first such ETF from a major Wall Street bank. The fund would join spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree and Invesco.

The article said Morgan Stanley’s ETF has a 0.14% expense ratio, lower than IBIT’s 0.25% and lower than Grayscale’s BTC expense ratio of 0.15%.

It further reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $164 million this month after adding $1.32 billion in the prior month. Total holdings are now over $86 billion, with IBIT holding more than $52 billion.

Technical picture

On the three-day timeframe, Bitcoin has pulled back in recent weeks, rising from a February low of $60,400 to around $69,000.

The article said BTC remains in an ascending channel, part of a bearish flag pattern often treated as a continuation signal in technical analysis. It has stayed slightly below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $71,457.

Bitcoin has also remained below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages since November, and below the Supertrend indicator, which the article described as a sign that bears are still in control.

Based on the technical setup, the article suggested BTC could continue falling toward the 61.8% retracement level at $58,330. A further drop below that level could open additional downside toward the psychological $50,000 mark.