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AMRO’s Asia Regional Outlook 2026 (AREO) annual report says Vietnam is adjusting well to regional and global volatility, integrating rapidly into global value chains, and emerging as a top destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings were presented at a briefing by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, which includes ASEAN members and China, Japan, and Korea.
At the April 6 briefing, AMRO chief economist Dong He said Vietnam has managed last year’s tariff shocks “fairly well,” adding that the outcome was better than analysts expected. He also said Vietnam is expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economy in 2026.
AREO projects Vietnam’s real GDP growth at 7.4% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The report notes that growth is projected to ease from last year’s 8%, while emphasizing Vietnam’s resilience and growth potential.
The AREO report highlights that ASEAN+3’s trade performance over the past two decades has expanded the region’s share of world trade (exports plus imports) from 23.1% in 2000 to 30.7% in 2024. Within the region, China contributes the largest share, with global export and import shares rising from 3.9% and 5.2% in 2000 to 16.4% and 8.5% in 2024.
The report also points to other economies, including Vietnam, advancing alongside deeper integration into global value chains.
AREO says ASEAN+3 is increasingly affected by regional fluctuations, particularly those originating from China. For most economies, demand shocks from the United States are described as less impactful than those from China; however, Vietnam is noted as an exception, reacting to shocks from both China and the United States. This pattern, the report says, signals Vietnam’s rapid integration into supply chains serving both markets.
AREO also observes that ASEAN+3 has become a more important destination for FDI as the region’s integration into global trade and production networks deepens.
In 2024, ASEAN+3 accounted for 22.5% of global FDI. The report says intra-regional FDI shares have increased over the past two decades, rising from 48.7% in 2009 to 49.2% in 2024, reflecting stronger regional trade ties and supply chains. It adds that Vietnam has emerged as a top destination, consistent with its expanding role in the regional supply chain.
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