Viewpoint 08/04: Continued Consolidation

The VN-Index is likely to consolidate in a range of 1,665–1,745 points after testing the nearest resistance area, according to Tiên Phong Securities (TPS). Several securities firms cited low liquidity and cautious sentiment as investors awaited the FTSE upgrade review on 08/04.

Early rebound expected

Yuanta Vietnam Securities (Yuanta) said the VN-Index moved within a narrow range with low liquidity, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Selling pressure was not large, and the market’s positive close toward the end of the session suggested demand is returning at lower price levels.

Yuanta noted that large-cap stocks showed renewed positive momentum, while selling pressure in mid- and small-cap groups declined significantly.

In a positive scenario, Yuanta expects the index to resume an uptrend in coming sessions, with the 1,710–1,740 range likely to be tested again. The firm suggested investors could buy on 08/04 but should take profits as prices approach the 1,710–1,740 resistance zone.

Increasing swings within a tight band

Beta Securities (Beta) said conflicting signals are keeping the market in a “tug-of-war” within a narrow range, with oscillations becoming denser as supply and demand continue to challenge each other.

With the trend unclear, Beta expects cautious sentiment to dominate trading. It recommended defensive strategies, using only small positions on corrections toward reasonable levels, and focusing on stocks with solid fundamentals and stable cash flow. Maintaining a high cash level was also highlighted as a way to control risk and create flexibility for opportunities when clearer signals emerge.

Consolidation outlook and key support levels

TPS said the VN-Index recovered modestly on low liquidity, indicating cautious sentiment but with signs of improvement. The MA10, MA20 and MA200 are converging around 1,670, forming a support base amid mixed external factors and expectations of an upgrade.

TPS added that the index has broken the short-term downtrend, suggesting negative momentum has improved. However, low liquidity means the uptrend has not yet been confirmed. Therefore, the VN-Index is expected to consolidate in the 1,665–1,745 range after testing the nearest resistance area.

Cash-flow dispersion and near-term indicators

VCBS said the VN-Index closed with clear dispersion in cash flow. On the daily chart, the index continues to test support around 1,675, roughly aligned with MA20. The CMF indicator continues to rise, reinforcing the uptrend and suggesting buying demand remains ready to support the market.

On the intraday chart, VCBS noted that MACD still shows a gap between signal lines, indicating near-term selling pressure remains somewhat dominant. RSI fluctuates around 50, implying small corrections may occur in upcoming sessions.

Volatility and trading conditions

Asean Securities (Aseansc) expects the VN-Index to continue oscillating in the 1,670–1,690 range on 08/04. The firm said clearer improvement would require the index to break above 1,680–1,690 again with better liquidity.

Its suggested approach was to keep equity weight at 30–45% for short-term investors, limit margins, and trade only when the market reacts positively at support. For mid- to long-term investors, Aseansc recommended maintaining the core portfolio and considering gradual deployment at deeper supports, prioritizing banks, securities, retailers, public investment, oil and gas, and stocks with solid fundamentals and high liquidity.

Continuing accumulation, but neutral stance

SHS said the short-term trend shows the VN-Index continuing to accumulate in a very narrow range around 1,650–1,700.

SHS identified short-term support around 1,650–1,670, corresponding to lower levels on 09/03/2026 and the 200-day moving average. It also noted that VN30 remains less positive, trading below the 200-day moving average after a strong rally since April 2025.

For VN30, SHS said a more positive outlook would be unlikely unless it can clear around 1,860 with positive liquidity.

SHS described the broader market as being in a consolidation phase with a narrowing range and waning liquidity. While the market is awaiting FTSE Russell’s mid-year upgrade announcement expected on 08/04/2026, SHS said it is difficult to identify high-growth opportunities amid many risk factors, advising a neutral stance. It recommended focusing on value stocks with high dividend yields in quality companies where possible, balancing portfolio exposure, and targeting leading stocks in strategic sectors with above-average growth in the economy.

SHS remained neutral and expected indicators to improve as liquidity enhances, suggesting investors hold core stocks and consider incremental deployment on dips.

Low-liquidity environment limits visibility

BSC said the next trend is difficult to forecast because liquidity remains low.