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XRP’s brief surge on Tuesday was not viewed as a reason for celebration by crypto analyst CasiTrades. The cryptocurrency rose to as high as $1.39, but the analyst argued that the move appears temporary and may be setting up for a larger downward push that could surprise traders.
On April 8, XRP climbed to $1.39 following a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran. The development triggered a wave of short liquidations across the crypto market and shifted sentiment from extreme fear to cautious neutrality.
CasiTrades said the bounce matched what the chart needed to complete a corrective structure. In her view, the move into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area—shown on the chart around the $1.35 to $1.40 range—confirmed a clean Wave 2 within an Elliott Wave framework.
She added that the counter-trend move finished without breaking the broader bearish count. Despite the strength of the rebound, XRP failed to hold above the Fibonacci levels and was reported back around $1.32.
According to CasiTrades’ wave count on the one-hour timeframe, XRP had already completed Wave 1 down and Wave 2 up by the time the ceasefire-related bounce peaked. With Wave 2 likely completed, attention turns to the next stage in Elliott Wave theory: Wave 3, typically the strongest and fastest move in the sequence.
Her projected targets include:
The analyst said the broader macro environment offers few bullish factors that could invalidate the bearish outlook. She cited two potential positives: the CLARITY Act markup, scheduled for the second half of April, and any progress on the Iran ceasefire.
However, if the CLARITY Act stalls and the conflict drags on, CasiTrades warned that XRP’s $1.30 support could break, opening the door for further downside.
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