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Bitcoin’s April rebound is drawing renewed attention from traders, but analyst Aaron Dishner is warning that the move may be a deceptive “relief rally” rather than a sustained reversal of the broader bear market.
Dishner argues that the bear market structure remains intact despite the short-term uptick in prices. His view is based on historical “bottom-year” patterns tracked through the Better Crypto Calendar, which monitors monthly returns for BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market.
According to Dishner, bottom years often feature an April bounce that is contained within a larger bearish framework, followed by sharper declines in May and June. He also notes that a secondary bounce around July is possible, but typically only after a more significant drawdown has already occurred.
“The data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June.” — Aaron Dishner (@MooninPapa), April 12, 2026
Dishner previously highlighted a 4.3% price pump that he said was triggered by unverified geopolitical news and then reversed quickly. He characterized that move as low-liquidity manipulation and suggested similar false signals could recur through April.
Dishner also points to technical measures to assess whether the rally has real support. He tracks On-Balance Volume alongside his TBO Indicator and says both are currently weak despite Bitcoin’s higher price action.
He interprets this as evidence that genuine buying pressure is missing. He also cites “Trending Breakout divergence” warnings appearing on higher timeframes.
Dishner expects the relief rally phase to potentially test the $70,000 to $80,000 range, which he says could attract retail buyers anticipating a full trend reversal. He warns that this setup can contribute to a bull trap.
For downside, Dishner’s primary target is $49,000 if the $60,000 support level fails to hold in Q2.
Dishner advises traders to avoid chasing short-term green candles and to wait for bearish confirmation before taking heavy positions. While he acknowledges that bottom years can offer long-term accumulation opportunities, he emphasizes that disciplined risk management is necessary given the volatility and likelihood of false signals.
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