Three pillars, three cracks: XRP's investment thesis falters as on-chain metrics deteriorate

Something uncomfortable is happening under the hood of XRP (XRP 2.22%). Compared with a year ago, daily active accounts on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) have been sliding, the volume of payments moving between wallets is declining, and the amount of XRP burned keeps shrinking. For investors who bought XRP expecting it to become a widely used bridge currency, a retail payments rail, or an increasingly scarce coin through fee burns, these trends point in the wrong direction.

Three pillars, three cracks

The classic investment thesis for XRP leaned on three pillars: adoption as a cross-border bridge currency, growing organic usage driving demand, and supply diminishing over time as XRP is permanently destroyed through transaction fees on the network. According to the reported metrics, all three pillars are deteriorating.

• Daily active wallet addresses: peaked at just over 49,000 in July 2025, and are now down to under 16,000.
• Daily payments between wallets: were a bit over 1 million on April 8, 2025, and 12 months later are at 748,430.
• XRP burned: 2,663 XRP were burned a year ago on that same day, while this year only 455 XRP were burned due to network activity.

The article argues that the XRPL does not appear to be seeing increased adoption from users seeking to transfer money across international boundaries, and that the coin is not currently in a state of increasing demand sufficient to cover transaction costs.

It also notes that the last 12 months have been especially tough for the blockchain as its price fell for much of that period. Looking over a longer three-year window is described as painting a more positive picture, though the specific figures for that period are not provided.

The scorecard is what changed the most

The piece suggests that XRPL’s trajectory may have shifted in ways that make the public metrics described earlier a weaker proxy for progress than in the past.

Institutional activity and private channels

In February, the XRPL activated a permissioned decentralized exchange (DEX) for regulated financial institutions. The DEX is described as a members-only trading floor where banks can trade with each other, supported by built-in know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money-laundering (AML) compliance.

The article states that these transactions do not appear to be reflected in the earlier datasets, and it is “plausible” that declines in those metrics partially reflect institutional activity migrating to private channels rather than disappearing.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs)

The article identifies real-world asset (RWA) tokenization as where the XRPL’s pivot becomes concrete. It says the XRPL now hosts over $470 million in tradeable tokenized assets, compared with $116 million in April 2025.

It frames this as a broader shift in how cryptocurrency may be used, emphasizing institutional “plumbing,” and argues that XRPL is positioned to attract more capital.

Why institutions may not need many wallets

On the note of financial institutions, the article adds that they do not need thousands of crypto wallets to park and manage many billions of tokenized assets. It points to the XRPL’s transaction speed and low cost as part of what attracts them, and suggests that as long as Ripple continues developing the network’s capabilities for institutional capital, the XRPL may continue onboarding that capital—even if activity increasingly occurs within the DEX environment.

Don’t panic, but don’t relax

The article’s central question is how additional capital and features on the XRPL translate into returns for holders. It notes that daily coin burns are dramatically lower than before, and that it would have taken a very large amount of consistent daily burning to create a meaningful positive impact on XRP’s price.

While it advises not to sell XRP “just yet,” it cautions that until something changes about XRP’s economics, XRP is “growing riskier over time,” and that it was not a safe investment to begin with.