Bitcoin climbs to weekly high above $69,000 as US-Iran ceasefire hopes buoy markets and oil falls

Bitcoin and broader financial markets rose in early Asian and London trading Monday after reports suggested potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The leading cryptocurrency hit a weekly high of $69,350 Monday morning and was last quoted at $69,245, up 3.5% on the day, according to CoinGecko data. Oil fell 1.4% from Friday’s close, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.85% and S&P 500 futures rose 0.64%. Safe-haven gold hovered near breakeven.

Ceasefire talks drive risk sentiment

The move followed a Reuters report that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Reuters said a potential framework to end hostilities and a ceasefire has been put together by Pakistan, with all elements needing agreement by Monday. The initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalized electronically through Pakistan, described as the sole communication channel in the talks.

The news came after a Sunday post by U.S. President Donald Trump on TruthSocial, in which he said there would be public statements and warnings before the ceasefire talks and urged action.

Short squeeze and ETF-related factors

Analyst Ekko An of Seoul-based Tiger Research said the ceasefire negotiation reports from Iran, rather than Trump’s remarks, were the main driver of Bitcoin’s increase.

“The market has stopped taking Trump’s comments at face value since he has repeatedly made statements without any substantive coordination,” An said. “As a result, the market is now interpreting price moves by combining his statements with external action signals.”

Separately, Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, said more than $200 million in crypto short positions were liquidated over 24 hours—four times more than longs—according to CoinGlass data. He described the pattern as consistent with a “textbook short squeeze,” noting that sentiment was positioned for a reversal.

Lim also cited a confluence of factors, including Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF launch on April 8. He said the new product’s 0.14% expense ratio undercut BlackRock’s IBIT fee of 0.25%, contributing to the spike.

Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk

Despite the rally in risk assets, Lim said the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural concern.

He argued that reopening would “collapse the oil risk premium,” pull forward rate cut expectations, and “re-lever the entire risk curve from equities to crypto,” adding that “oil drops first, then rates reprice, then risk assets rally.”

Lim cautioned that a pause without meaningful normalization in the Strait could produce a headline-driven rally that fades within days. He said the market has seen this pattern three times since late March, and warned that “until that number moves materially, rallies on rhetoric will keep getting sold.”

Market odds point to conditional optimism

On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users showed growing optimism about a U.S./Iran ceasefire. The chance of one in the first half of the year rose by over 10% on the day, though it remained broadly negative at 45%.

Myriad users also assigned a 46% chance that Bitcoin’s next move would be a rally to $84,000. Crude oil was seen as having an 83% probability of rising to $120.

The market on more than 15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz before May turned more optimistic, up almost 7% to 60% on the day.

Both analysts said a potential retest of $80,000 is possible, but heavily dependent on successful talks and a confirmed ceasefire. They added that failure could send Bitcoin down to $60,000.