Bitcoin enters historic buy zone as 80–90% of capital remains underwater

On-chain pain is back, and that has historically mattered for Bitcoin. Traders are focusing on the share of capital now in loss: when aggregate unrealized losses rise to very high levels, it often indicates late-cycle buyers have been trapped and fear is near peak. In prior Bitcoin drawdowns, broad unrealized pain has more often aligned with accumulation windows than with ideal exit points.

This is not a precise timing signal for an instant bottom. Bitcoin has a history of overshooting in both directions, and capitulation phases can last longer than bulls expect. Still, when roughly 80% to 90% of capital is in loss, the market is typically well into damage rather than just beginning it.

On-chain positioning: short-term holders under pressure

Market structure suggests short-term holders are the weak hand. Bitcoin is trading below key short-term cost-basis levels, concentrating pressure among newer entrants who are more likely to reduce risk, sell into volatility, or react to negative headlines.

Recent estimates place the short-term holder realized price near $79,200, while the so-called true market mean is around $78,300. With BTC trading below those levels, the current drawdown appears to be centered on participants carrying the bulk of unrealized losses.

Longer-duration holders are in a different position. Bitcoin remains above several major on-chain support benchmarks, including Realized Price around $54,100, Long-Term Holder Realized Price near $49,200, and Investor Price around $49,500. As long as price stays above this cluster, the broader market’s long-term cost basis has not been structurally lost.

That keeps the current move in “compression” territory rather than signaling a full cycle reset.

Miner-linked transfer adds to near-term fear

Sentiment also darkened after a fresh wallet move tied to MARA Holdings. Arkham data flagged a transfer of 200 BTC, worth about $13.84 million at the time, from MARA to a wallet reportedly associated with prior selling activity.

On its own, a 200 BTC transfer is not market-breaking size—Bitcoin trades billions in daily spot volume. However, context matters. MARA is one of the largest public Bitcoin treasury holders, and transfers to wallets linked to potential distribution tend to draw trader attention.

The transfer does not confirm an outright sale, but it reinforces a narrative that miners and corporate holders could add supply into weakness. In a tape already dominated by unrealized losses, that is enough to pressure bid confidence in the short run.

Key levels: support still holding, but the chart remains fragile

Bitcoin is down sharply—roughly 50% below its 2025 peak. Such a drawdown can reset sentiment, wipe out leverage, and push momentum traders to the sidelines. Even so, the market is still holding above the $68,600 area highlighted by several analysts as an important support zone.

That level is not presented as a standalone “magic number,” but as part of a broader map. If BTC can hold above the realized-value cluster and avoid losing higher-timeframe support, the current phase may resemble prior late-drawdown accumulation bands. If those supports break decisively, the “historic buy zone” thesis would weaken and the market could shift into a waiting period for deeper value.

Overall, the market is described as split into two layers: an upper layer dominated by underwater short-term holders that is reactive, and a lower layer where long-term holders and older capital remain intact. This is why the chart can look fragile even while deeper on-chain structure has not fully rolled over.

What would confirm the bullish case?

Buy zones are rarely comfortable, and the article frames the current conditions as an area where patient capital may start building watchlists, scaling entries, and monitoring whether long-term support continues to hold. The emphasis is on separating panic from structural breakdown rather than assuming an immediate reversal.

For now, the “receipts” are described as pointing to a historically interesting area rather than a confirmed reversal.

Bottom line

Bitcoin’s latest slide has pushed a large share of capital into loss, a condition that has often coincided with strong long-term entry zones in past cycles. However, short-term holder stress remains high, and miner-linked transfer activity is keeping the market jumpy.

The bullish case depends on BTC staying above its major on-chain support cluster in the mid-$50,000 to high-$40,000 range, with $68,600 acting as a nearer-term line. If those levels fail, the accumulation thesis would need to be reassessed. Until then, the move is characterized as forcing weak hands out rather than a clean rug pull—pending whether the next real trend declares itself.