Agriseco identifies stocks with attractive valuations, expects strong growth in Q1 2026

Agriseco has identified a set of companies it views as offering attractive valuations alongside high growth expectations for Q1 2026. In April, the main drivers for cash flow and market sentiment are expected to be Q1 2026 earnings results and disclosures from the annual general meetings (AGMs) of listed companies.

On the macro front, Agriseco said the domestic backdrop remains supportive for the VN-Index’s medium- and long-term uptrend, supported by expectations for positive Q1 2026 economic and social data. The brokerage also highlighted the market-upgrade narrative, with FTSE Russell expected to publish the results of its market classification review on April 7, 2026, which could attract foreign inflows. In the near term, liquidity may soften as investors become more cautious ahead of the unpredictable Middle East conflict.

Stock selection focus: valuations and profit growth

Agriseco’s approach prioritizes companies with reasonable valuations and solid financials, with profits expected to grow in Q1 2026 and sustain through 2026.

Banking: MBB expected to benefit from loan growth and rising non-interest income

In the banking sector, Moob (MBB) is projected to post pre-tax profit growth of more than 10% in Q1, driven by loan growth. Agriseco also noted that non-interest income from services and other income—primarily debt resolution recoveries—continues to rise by more than 15% year-on-year.

For 2026, Agriseco said MBB’s strategy is supported by a comprehensive financial ecosystem and a rapidly growing customer base, including both retail and corporate clients. The bank’s goal is to add 5 million users in 2026, supporting its leading position in CASA (non-term deposits to total deposits). With lower cost of funds and revenue from digital channels, 2026 revenue is expected to grow 10–15% year-on-year, helping keep net interest margin above 4%, well above the sector average (about 2.7%).

Securities: HSC expected to maintain solid growth amid high market liquidity

Agriseco expects HSC (HCM) to deliver solid growth in its Q1 2026 results. Profit is forecast to rise versus the year-ago period, supported by an expanded loan book following a late-2025 capital raise. The brokerage also cited continued high market liquidity, with average daily turnover around VND 35 trillion per session, up over 90% year-on-year.

FTSE Russell’s expected publication of market-review results on April 7, 2026 is also expected to have positive spillover effects for inflows. In addition, private placements and ESOP plans disclosed in April AGM materials could be supportive for HCM.

Steel: HPG outlook supported by higher shipments and easing import pressure

In steel, Hòa Phát Group (HPG) is expected to see Q1 results improve due to higher construction steel consumption and HRC shipments up 51% year-on-year in the first two months. Agriseco also pointed to gross margin improvement, supported by low-cost inventory from Q4 2025 as steel prices rise about 5% year-on-year.

The Dung Quất 2 project is expected to raise HRC output by around 60% versus 2025. Agriseco added that price adjustments aligned with input-cost increases should help margins remain stable. It also noted that a temporary anti-dumping tariff on wide HRC imports at 27.83% from April 16, 2026 will ease competition from cheap imports, supporting domestic pricing.

Ports and logistics: GMD supported by capacity expansion and potential divestment gain

Agriseco sees long-term growth potential for Gemadept (GMD) driven by capacity expansion. It highlighted that Nam Đình Vũ 3 is expected to start commercial operation by end-2025, lifting total port cluster capacity to about 2 million TEU/year. The brokerage expects the port cluster could fill about 90% of capacity within three years, supported by its niche in ultra-heavy cargo handling.

For Gemalink Phase 2A, Agriseco said the project—invested at nearly USD 200 million—could add about 600,000 TEU/year from 2027, increasing total port capacity by around 50%. GMD is completing legal steps to begin deployment.

Agriseco also forecast that GMD could realize around VND 200 billion in profit from divesting the rubber segment in 2026.

Industrial parks: PHR expected to grow on stable rubber prices and IP expansion

In industrial parks, Phước Hòa Rubber (PHR) is projected to grow in Q1 2026, supported by (1) rubber revenue rising as average rubber prices remain flat year-on-year and (2) higher profits from operating IP parks such as VSIP 3 and Nam Tân Uyên 2 expansions.

PHR is expected to sustain strong growth through 2026–2028, supported by compensation from the Bắc Tân Uyên 1 IP park project (785 ha).

Retail: PNJ seasonal demand expected to lift Q1 profit

Analysts cited by Agriseco noted that Q1 is typically the peak season for PNJ, as wedding demand supports jewelry consumption. Key demand catalysts include March 8, Valentine’s Day, and the God of Wealth day. Based on this seasonal pattern, Agriseco estimates PNJ’s Q1 2026 net profit could reach around VND 1.4–1.5 trillion, roughly doubling year-on-year.