Bitcoin signals first bullish trend since 2025 as MACD cross nears; five things to know this week

Bitcoin faces a fresh test this week as macro tensions build alongside a bullish BTC price trend reversal. A widely tracked weekly momentum metric is nearing a potential flip to bullish for the first time in nearly a year, while short-term liquidations have accelerated as traders pile in around the $70,000 area.

Weekly momentum hints at a reversal

On longer time frames, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has become a focal point for bulls. The weekly close has reclaimed the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). More importantly, the weekly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is approaching a key bullish signal.

X commentator Crypto Seth said on Monday that holding the level is “crucial for the entire Crypto industry,” adding that Ether (ETH) is also due for an MACD cross.

Bitcoin’s last bullish weekly MACD flip occurred in May 2025, about one month after BTC/USD put in its 2025 low near $74,500. Over the following two months, price rose from $94,000 to $119,000, setting new all-time highs.

GalaxyTrading also highlighted historical MACD timing across prior bear markets. It said that in the 2018 bear market, weekly MACD took around 245 days to turn positive, and in 2022 it took about 245 days to turn bullish. It added that in 2026, the 245-day mark would be reached by the end of April.

Liquidations rise as BTC moves through $70,000

Bitcoin pushed beyond $70,000 after the weekly close, with TradingView data showing a move to new April highs. The close was described as notable because it brought back the 200-week EMA and the old 2021 all-time high as potential support levels.

CoinGlass data cited in the report showed total crypto liquidations passing $250 million over the 24 hours to the time of writing.

Trader CrypNuevo said in an X thread on Sunday that he continued to look for longs closer to $64,000, describing it as a potential downside liquidity hunt. He pointed to “HTF liquidations between $64k-$64.5k,” adding that this could “fuel a move lower,” while noting he did not see conclusive data on lower time frame (LTF) liquidations.

Derivatives activity returns

CryptoQuant flagged the return of “aggressive short-term positioning,” citing spikes in both cumulative net taker volume and open interest on Binance. The report said this matters because Bitcoin’s move is being driven not only by price strength but also by renewed speculative participation in derivatives.

Contributor Amr Taha commented that traders are becoming more willing to add fresh exposure as BTC pushes higher, and that if the trend continues, it could reinforce short-term momentum.

“Bridge Day” deadline and war risk raise volatility

Geopolitics and upcoming US inflation data are expected to combine for “extreme volatility,” according to analysis cited in the article. The US-Israel and Iran war continues to influence sentiment, with oil prices reflecting uncertainty around issues including the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI crude oil started the week above $115 per barrel. Traders are watching a specific deadline: Tuesday at 8pm Eastern time, when US President Donald Trump has promised major infrastructure strikes if no deal with Iran is reached.

In a Truth Social post over the weekend, Trump referred to the deadline as “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” and demanded that Hormuz reopen. Headlines also included discussion of a 45-day ceasefire as a potential focus.

The Kobeissi Letter reported that the news was framed as a “last-ditch effort” to prevent “massive strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure.” It also noted that S&P 500 futures “erased all losses,” underscoring risk-asset sensitivity to war-related triggers, with Bitcoin described as not an exception.

Former hedge fund manager James Lavish told Cointelegraph that markets were pricing odds of the war ending sooner rather than later. He said a potential BTC drawdown in a “black swan” scenario could be up to 20%.

US inflation data: PCE and CPI in focus

Markets are set to weigh war-related shocks alongside multiple US inflation releases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—described as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge—is one of the key prints. The February PCE release matched market expectations but did not reflect inflation trends after the war began.

Mosaic Asset Company summarized in its “The Market Mosaic” newsletter that challenges around the inflation outlook remain a major risk, citing the jump in oil prices and potential spillover effects from fertilizer shortages on food prices.

The report also emphasized the week’s last and most important inflation number: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It said oil-price moves are especially relevant for CPI given their direct impact on inflation trends.

Kobeissi commented that oil prices are crossing above $115 per barrel in the US, and that if current levels persist for another ~7 weeks, models indicate US CPI inflation could rise to ~3.7%. Kobeissi said its “base case” for CPI inflation is now 3%, higher than the Fed’s target.

Like PCE, the most recent CPI print was described as flat, helping temper the impact of earlier overshoots. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool was cited as showing practically no chance of the Fed changing rates at its next meeting at the end of April.

Bear flag risk remains in traders’ view

Despite the bullish technical signals, the article notes a bearish structure that some traders believe could still lead to lower prices. BTC/USD is described as testing support at the bottom of its second bear flag of 2026. The first bear flag, which appeared in January, resulted in a drop of roughly $25,000.

Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, warned that BTC’s price action remains “nearly identical” to the prior bear flag structure. He said he is following the pattern “like roadmap until price deviates from that path.”

The report added that the bear flag could be invalidated by either an end to the war or a sufficiently strong Q2 Open, which would challenge resistance at the macro structure.