Domestic gold prices could fall sharply if 11 entities are licensed to import and manufacture gold bars

On April 14, during a press briefing on the first-quarter 2026 results of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Deputy Director Dao Xuan Tuan of the SBV’s Foreign Exchange Management Department said that, to date, 11 entities—including enterprises and credit institutions—have submitted applications for licenses to manufacture bullion and to import gold raw materials. Two additional units have applied since the start of the year.

Mr. Tuan said the licensing reviews are being conducted very strictly. SBV is coordinating to finalize the assessment, and official results will be announced to the press when available.

Licensing expected to affect near-term supply and the domestic–world price gap

The addition of more licensed entities is expected to increase supply in the near term, helping stabilize the market and narrow the domestic price gap with world gold prices. The gap is currently more than 20 million dong per tael, after having surpassed 30 million just days earlier.

Market participants are watching whether, once licenses for importing gold raw materials and producing bullion are granted, domestic gold prices will drop sharply toward world prices or whether the gap will only narrow.

What could determine how fast prices narrow

Huỳnh Trung Khánh, a World Gold Council (WGC) adviser in Vietnam and Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Association (VGTA), said the speed at which domestic bullion (SJC) prices and plain gold prices can fall depends on the volume of gold materials imported in each period.

“If the enterprises licensed to import gold material and produce bullion meet market demand, the gap could narrow to 10 million dong per tael or even 5 million dong per tael. When consumers can buy bullion without restrictions, domestic prices will fall quickly. However, we must wait for official information on import sources and allocation quotas for the enterprises,” he said.

Recent price stability and trading conditions

In recent weeks, gold prices have been relatively stable around 170 million dong per tael, and trading activity has been quiet.

Typically, in the second quarter each year, gold trading is less brisk after the busy start of the year, partly due to the Lunar New Year and the God of Wealth festival.

Demand trends and regulatory changes

Market observers said demand for bullion and plain gold has fallen significantly, well below the peak of 190–191 million dong per tael recorded in late January.

Under Government Decree 232/2025/ND-CP, which amends Decree 24/2012/ND-CP on gold trading regulation, the bullion gold monopoly has been removed. The SBV will assign the right to import and manufacture bullion to a number of banks and eligible enterprises.

License requirements

To obtain a bullion gold license, a company must have at least 1,000 billion dong in charter capital. Banks must meet a threshold of 50,000 billion dong.

Entities must also be on SBV’s list of licensees for precious metal trading and must not have penalties, or must have remedied violations if penalties occurred.

– Thái Phương