Gulf conflict creates an opportunity for Russia-India energy cooperation

Amid the global energy shock triggered by the conflict between the United States and Iran, Russia has expressed willingness to increase supplies of crude oil and natural gas to India, a country heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports to meet the needs of a fast-growing economy with a population of more than 1.4 billion. Iran has blocked the Hormuz Strait—through which about 20% of the world's crude oil and LNG shipments pass—after the conflict erupted in late February. On April 13, the United States deployed naval forces to blockade ships entering or leaving Iran's ports in the strait. Disruptions at Hormuz present a major challenge for Asian nations, which rely mainly on Middle East energy via this route. With 85% of domestic oil consumption sourced from imports and nearly half of crude imports coming from the Middle East, India faces a particularly high risk. Earlier in early April, Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov visited India, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. Subsequently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to visit India in May for a BRICS conference. A statement from the Russian embassy in New Delhi said Manturov's meetings in New Delhi gave 'special attention' to energy cooperation. 'Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov affirmed that Russian companies have the energy capacity to steadily increase crude oil and LNG supplies to the Indian market,' the statement said. Manturov also noted that by the end of 2025, Russia had increased the supply of chemical fertilizers to India by 40% and is ready to continue meeting the country's demand for these products. In addition, a joint project on urea fertilizer production 'is being implemented', he added. The signals from Moscow come after the United States last month extended a 30-day waiver allowing New Delhi and other countries to purchase Russian oil in order to cool global energy prices. 'As soon as supply from the Middle East is disrupted by the Iran conflict, it is natural for India to return to Russian energy,' said Sanjay Kumar Pandey, a professor at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, in an interview with Nikkei Asia. 'Now India and Russia are not only discussing crude oil and LNG supplies, but also expanding economic ties, for example in the production of urea fertilizer,' Pandey said. Both countries are currently settling most transactions in the rupee-ruble pair, and using these two currencies 'will help a lot because through it, Russia can at least avoid some sanctions' — Pandey added. He argued Russia is likely the main beneficiary of the Iran conflict as it leads to higher energy export earnings. Pandey also pointed out that previously, when India reduced imports from Moscow under U.S. pressure, Russia had expressed discontent and India also felt some concerns about the relationship. However, Pandey said Russia has realized that their partnership with India is multi-faceted and recognizes the benefit of promoting rupee-ruble transactions. 'Therefore… Russia remains willing to do business with India,' he said. Other observers also believe this is a 'good time' for India and Russia to redefine their energy relationship. 'Tpant says the U.S. President may not be overly concerned about India buying oil from Russia because his priorities are elsewhere; all his attention is on Iran,' Harsh V. Pant, deputy director of the ORF, told Nikkei Asia. 'The India–Russia relationship will develop according to market conditions and the level of economic comfort the two countries can achieve,' Pant said, and added that Russia is also seeking to expand its energy export markets beyond a few such as China. 'This conflict again shows Russia's role as an alternative energy supplier to a large part of the world,' Pant said. Rahul Wankhede, a research analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, said from a national-interest perspective, India will sign upfront contracts with Russian oil suppliers. 'Thus, India will secure the energy supply it needs immediately,' he said, while noting that the U.S. exemption order for Russian oil is for one month, but there may still be ways to 'work around' and 'ensure supply for at least 6-7 months more.' When asked whether the U.S. may seek to block India from buying Russian oil in the future, Wankhede said: 'That is very hard to predict and depends on how the conflict in the Middle East evolves.' He also noted that the United States recognizes that if Russian oil cannot reach the market now, international oil prices would rise further. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), said India should view the U.S. temporary exemption of Russian oil as an opportunity to actively replenish stocks of crude oil, LPG, and LNG. 'To reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks, India should strengthen long-term energy partnerships with stable suppliers like Russia,' he said.