Northern real estate market to grow more cautiously in the next 6–12 months

Over the next 6–12 months, the northern industrial real estate and logistics market is forecast to grow more cautiously. Rising energy costs are expected to push up logistics, transportation, and input costs, directly affecting corporate profit margins. As a result, many groups may adjust expansion plans, including delaying land leases or the construction of new plants.

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Q1 2026 performance: supply expands, occupancy remains resilient

In Q1 2026, the northern industrial real estate market continued its growth trajectory, supported by expanding supply, stable occupancy, and upward rental trends.

Industrial land and zones

According to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), the industrial land bank in Vietnam’s northern key provinces reached nearly 13,000 hectares, with more than 70 industrial zones in operation. In Q1 2026, the market recorded over 100 hectares of new supply in Haiphong (formerly Hai Duong). The occupancy rate remained around 82%, while the cumulative traded area through the quarter reached 10,400 hectares, up 5% year-on-year. Major developers such as Kinh Bac City, Deep C, Viglacera, Rox iPark and VSIP account for nearly 50% of the market share by developed area.

Ready-built factories

In the ready-built factory segment, supply reached over 3.6 million square meters across 91 projects in operation, up 14% year-on-year. New supply in the first quarter was approximately 159,000 square meters. Occupancy stayed high at 87%, with demand concentrated mainly in Bac Ninh and Haiphong. Rental rates ranged from 4 to 7.1 USD per square meter per month, up an average of 4% year-on-year.

Modern ready-built warehouses

In the modern ready-built warehouse segment, supply growth accelerated. Total supply stood at about 2.2 million square meters, up 1.7 times year-on-year. Q1 2026 added 162,000 square meters of new space and saw the entry of Korean investor JIEL Group through the JEIL Logistics Haiphong project.

Despite rapid supply growth, absorption remained steady. Occupancy eased slightly to 65% as the market needed time to absorb the new space. Rents continued to rise, averaging 5.1 USD per square meter per month, up 10% year-on-year and the strongest increase among the three segments.

Investment drivers and foreign capital inflows

JLL said growth in industrial real estate is supported by stable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, global supply-chain diversification strategies, and the shift toward factory and ready-built warehouse models.

Data from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office and the Ministry of Finance show that in the first three months of 2026, total registered FDI reached 15.2 billion USD, up 42.9% year-on-year. Of this, 904 new projects with total capital of 10.23 billion USD were registered, up 6.4% in project count year-on-year and 2.4 times in registered capital. The manufacturing sector led with 7.07 billion USD, accounting for 69% of total new capital. Investors from Singapore led registered capital with 5.32 billion USD, followed by South Korea (3.68 billion USD) and China.

Outlook: higher costs, expected rent growth, and occupancy dynamics

Ms. Nguyen Hong Van, Market Director at JLL Vietnam, said that over the next 6–12 months the northern industrial and logistics real estate market is forecast to grow more cautiously. Rising energy costs are expected to increase logistics costs, transportation costs, and input costs, which may lead firms to adjust expansion plans, including delaying land leases or new plant construction.

Rental rates are expected to rise by about 4–6% annually, depending on segment and location, particularly in areas near seaports, airports, and highway corridors. The occupancy rate is expected to remain high, with industrial land above 80%. For warehouses and factory buildings, improvements are expected gradually from late 2026 as new supply is absorbed. Industrial parks with completed infrastructure, attractive incentives, and well-connected transport are continuing to report occupancy rates near 90%.

"The Vietnamese industrial real estate market offers a wide range of options for manufacturers—from industrial land to built-to-suit and turnkey solutions—allowing tenants to begin production in Vietnam, including starting small and expanding in the future," Van said.

Geopolitical pressures and location preferences

JLL also noted that geopolitical tensions do not weaken the industrial market, but they can create near-term pressures due to rising logistics costs. This may influence how firms choose production locations, with regions that have developed infrastructure and convenient connectivity becoming preferred sites to optimize logistics costs. JLL said built-to-suit industrial real estate is the most cost-efficient cash-flow option.

Meanwhile, the global environment remains uncertain. In Q1 2026, the Middle East armed conflict intensified, threatening global peace and security and contributing to volatility in energy prices, disruptions to supply chains, and rising inflation. Trade policy challenges and the impact of natural disasters and climate change were also cited as risks to global economic growth.