OPEC+ concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure

OPEC+ warned that attacks on energy infrastructure are increasing volatility in the oil market and could negatively affect global supply in the future. The bloc also stressed the “crucial importance” of protecting international sea lanes to keep energy flows uninterrupted.

Quota increase agreed, but output constraints remain

On April 5, 2026, OPEC and its allies agreed to raise oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day from May. OPEC+ described the move as modest and largely symbolic, noting that key members cannot increase actual output due to the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.

Member states are expected to reconvene on May 3 to decide on further steps.

Hormuz Strait disruption limits real supply gains

The Middle East conflict has effectively blocked the Hormuz Strait, the world’s most important oil transport route, since the end of February. The disruption has impeded exports from OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq—countries that otherwise have capacity to raise production ahead of the conflict.

As a result, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have been compelled to cut supply. In this context, the April 5 quota decision is largely theoretical, intended to signal the bloc’s intention to restore production when tensions ease.

Recent production data and scale of the quota change

In March 2026, OPEC’s oil production fell by 7.3 million barrels per day versus the previous month, reflecting export-cutting effects linked to the Hormuz blockage.

OPEC+ sources said the 206,000 bpd quota increase represents less than 2% of the supply disruption caused by the closure of Hormuz.

Market reaction and inflation concerns

Jorge León, a former OPEC official who now leads geopolitical analysis at independent energy research firm Rystad Energy in Oslo, said the latest OPEC+ move would “add only a little crude to the market” and has “little significance.”

The market has already endured five weeks of volatility amid the US-Israel-Iran standoff. Oil prices rose to nearly $120 per barrel last month. Higher jet fuel and diesel costs also raise the risk of a renewed inflation wave.

In early April trading, Brent settled near $109 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would escalate the conflict.

Background: prior agreement on the same quota increase

Before the current escalation, OPEC+ had been gradually restoring supply that had been tightened since 2023, keeping output steady in the first three months of this year. At the latest meeting on March 1—one day after the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran—participants also agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day.