Vietnamese stock market in a tug-of-war as VN-Index trades in a narrow range around 1,650–1,725 points

The Vietnamese stock market is in a prolonged phase of indecision as the VN-Index repeatedly fails to sustain gains and yet does not fall sharply. The pattern reflects cautious cash flow amid several supporting factors that are not strong enough to trigger a clear rally, leaving investors in a waiting and anxious mood.

Since the trough at 1,591 points on March 23, the market has traded for 10 sessions, moving in an alternating up-and-down pattern rather than forming a sustained trend.

Market pattern and consolidation zone

Brokerage commentary suggests the market is oscillating in a narrow range, with the VN-Index currently around 1,650–1,725 points. This is described as a new consolidation zone where buying and selling power continuously compete, explaining why gains are often quickly followed by corrections.

Technically, many brokerage houses say the market is testing supply and demand around the long-term moving average (MA200), a key threshold used to confirm a mid-term trend. Repeated support in the 1,645–1,660 range is viewed positively, but not yet strong enough to establish a durable uptrend.

Cash flow rotation and foreign flows

Another factor behind the tug-of-war is cash flow dispersion. Funds are rotating quickly across sectors such as banks, real estate, equities, and steel, creating localized upward moves but not enough consensus to push the index higher.

Foreign investors have remained net sellers for many sessions, weighing on sentiment. Liquidity has improved but has not surged meaningfully, suggesting large capital is still on the sidelines.

Q1 signals and sentiment indicators

Despite the overall choppy pattern, some positive signals have emerged. On April 1, the VN-Index broke above the key resistance of 1,700 points, while liquidity rose about 20% from the prior session—an alignment between rising prices and trading value that may support a recovery.

Market-sentiment indicators were described as buoyant, at around 53%. Yuanta Vietnam Securities noted that on April 1 the rally was broad and funds were more willing to take risk, with even deeply fallen stocks recovering.

Beta Securities also pointed to improving technical signals, suggesting the market may be entering a controlled recovery phase. While funds still favor blue chips, the diffusion trend has started to form, laying groundwork for broader improvement.

On April 2, the VN-Index fell sharply at times, pulling many stocks down. However, neither selling nor buying was strong, allowing intraday lows to be quickly filled and creating a recovery opportunity.

Foreign investors turn net buyers

In a notable development, foreign investors turned net buyers in a record session on HoSE, with net buying value reported at up to 3,081.98 billion dong despite the overall market decline.

Valuations, macro outlook, and risks

Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital, said the market’s difficulty lies in President Trump’s changing messages, which leaves markets puzzled. On the positive side, the Vietnamese government is actively seeking solutions to the energy problem, and FTSE Russell upgrade expectations were reported as unchanged.

Dragon Capital also indicated it expects several new inflows early in the year, even though foreign outflows have continued. The recent pullback has reduced valuations by roughly 10%. The VN-Index trades around 1,700, but many blue-chip stocks are at much lower levels; Yuanta Vietnam said valuations are attractive again if earnings growth materializes.

For 2026, long-term macro prospects are described as positive, but divergence has appeared. Some organizations have cut earnings growth forecasts to about 11–12% due to rising input costs, which is making investors more cautious amid external risks that are not fully under control.

Near-term outlook

The market faces a potential April test, with risks of the VN-Index returning to around 1,570. Even if quarterly results are positive, the up-and-down phase may not end fully due to Q2 risks such as inflation, higher input costs, and geopolitical volatility.

As a result, the more plausible scenario is a shift from the current up-and-down phase to a trend-following consolidation—meaning volatility persists but within a narrower range and with a gradually improving uptrend. Some forecasts cited in the coverage point to the VN-Index moving toward 1,730–1,750 in the near term if supportive factors remain in place.

In the longer term, the outlook remains positive, supported by fundamentals including earnings growth, attractive valuations after adjustments, and upgrade expectations. If these factors materialize, the market could move into a more sustainable growth cycle.