Positive domestic factors support the stock market, according to An Bình Securities' April outlook

An Bình Securities has released an April stock market outlook update, saying the market is likely to be shaped by a combination of domestic positives and external negatives. The firm noted that while negative factors exist, they are being addressed by the government, with early encouraging results.

Domestic growth outlook supports earnings

On the positive side, Vietnam’s economy is described as favorable. In Q1 2026, GDP growth is reported as the highest in 15 years amid global uncertainty, supported by sustained production expansion, foreign direct investment with both new registrations and disbursements at record highs, strong export-import performance, and record inbound international tourism.

The firm also expects Q1 2026 market-wide earnings to be positive across many sectors, particularly large-cap groups including banks, securities, retail, public investment, construction materials, fertilizers, and downstream oil and gas. It added that 2026 business plans at many large enterprises still show growth.

Policy momentum and financial conditions improve

The 16th National Assembly, newly elected, held its first session to appoint national leadership for the 2026–2030 term, with the aim of achieving double-digit annual growth. The session approved socio-economic development plans, the mid-term public investment plan, the national financial plan, and the debt borrowing plan for 2026–2030. The firm said it is expected that new laws will be passed, including amendments to the Real Estate Business Law, amendments to the Housing Law, and the Capital (Hanoi) Law.

After taking office, government leadership and new members have taken active steps. In the short term, the Prime Minister directed resolution of issues for more than 1,500 pending projects. The State Bank of Vietnam also held meetings with commercial banks and reviewed loan and interbank rates, which the firm said contributed to subsequent reductions.

Market access and capital flows

Vietnam was notified by FTSE of an upgrade to emerging market status effective from September 21, 2026. An Bình estimates that passive funds from global ETFs will enter the market, with an allocation plan in four stages from September 2026 to September 2027 to help mitigate volatility and disturbances. The firm also said the stock market could attract capital from active funds totaling 4–5 billion USD.

External risks addressed; inflation remains a focus

On the negative side, the Middle East conflict is described as disrupting oil supply chains and pushing global oil prices higher, which can affect domestic fuel prices and, indirectly, inflation and growth prospects.

To counter these pressures, the government has implemented measures to increase supply, including boosting domestic refining capacity and securing alternative oil and gas supplies from Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. It also said fuel prices are being stabilized through price stabilization funds and by waiving import taxes on fuel.

As a result, the firm said Vietnam is maintaining fuel prices below global averages by about $1.3 per liter, even lower than neighboring countries. However, it highlighted that inflation in March rose to 4.65% year-on-year and remains a priority issue.

An Bình’s two market scenarios

Scenario 1: Sideways trading with medium-term support

In the first scenario, the firm expects the market to form medium-term support at 1,600 points and trade in a sideways range of 1,600–1,880. Investors are advised to focus on daily timeframe trading, targeting stocks that either hold support or are deeply discounted following the recent pullback.

For this scenario, An Bình said the key support level to watch is 1,586–1,606 points, which it described as an initial condition for buying trades.

Scenario 2: Positive breakout and higher trading band

In the most positive scenario, the VN-Index could break out early above 1,920 after price consolidation around 1,920. If this occurs, the firm said the market’s safer trading band could extend up to 2,184 points, allowing investors to increase their share holdings.