Power Plan VIII Adjustment: Many Projects Delayed and the Risk of Missed Deadlines

Nearly a year after the adjustment to Power Plan VIII was approved, many large electricity-generation projects expected to come online in the 2026-2030 period have progressed slowly and face the risk of delay. At the same time, pressure to ensure electricity supply—especially in Vietnam’s North—is increasingly acute.

Power Plan VIII targets, but execution lags

The adjusted Power Plan VIII was approved in April 2025, targeting total installed electricity capacity of about 183,000-236,000 MW by 2030—roughly two to three times the current level.

According to the Electricity Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), working groups have been directed to inspect implementation progress across multiple localities, including Khanh Hoa, Gia Lai, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, and Dong Nai. However, many projects remain behind schedule, which could affect electricity supply in the coming period.

Project delays by power source

Gas-fired power: uneven progress and pricing/contract issues

For gas-fired power, the adjustment targets total capacity up to 30,424 MW, including LNG power projects accounting for 25,524 MW. Implementation progress remains uneven.

Domestic gas-chain projects such as Ca Voi Xanh and Bao Vang have not been implemented. The B-Lo Mon block chain is being promoted, but still requires synchronization between gas extraction and power generation.

For LNG power, only Nhon Trach 3 and 4, with total capacity of 1,624 MW, have been put into operation since late last year. Beyond this, only projects with about 8,110 MW of gas-fired power are assessed to be operable in 2026-2030. The remainder—despite having investors or being under negotiation—faces major obstacles related to electricity price mechanisms, power purchase agreements, guarantees, and risk allocation.

Most LNG gas-fired projects also face the risk of being delayed beyond 2030.

Offshore wind: regulatory framework not yet in place

For offshore wind power, the Electricity Department said the 2030 target of 6,000 MW is “unlikely,” particularly because no project has yet received investment approval. The main obstacles are not resource potential but the legal framework, including work from surveys and sea-space arrangements to investor selection.

Hydropower: pumped storage flexibility behind schedule

Hydropower is expected to reach around 33,000-34,600 MW by 2030. However, pumped storage hydropower—the portion intended to provide system flexibility—is lagging. The plan targets 2,400-6,000 MW from pumped storage, but currently only two projects have investors, making the 6,000 MW target difficult to achieve.

Coal-fired power: about one year behind

Coal-fired power includes about 4,693 MW from five projects under construction. The Electricity Department notes the overall trend is about one year behind schedule, amid financial difficulties and growing pressures from the energy transition.

Supply-side risks: imports not fully secured

Electricity imports are not yet certain. The plan targets importing 9,360-12,100 MW from Laos, but by the end of 2025 only 5,881 MW are projected to be available for the 2026-2030 period. Imports from China still face regulatory issues and cannot proceed on schedule.

Local implementation gaps

Delays are also evident at the local level. Khanh Hoa has 107 power projects, but only slightly over 40% have been approved for investment. Ca Mau has 13 out of 33 projects, and Son La has many projects without selected investors. The Electricity Department’s assessment indicates the issue is not a lack of projects, but a lack of execution pace.

Impact: peak-hour shortages and widening deficits

In a scenario where power projects are implemented on schedule, the system can still meet requirements for higher economic growth. However, under current conditions, the risk of capacity shortfall during peak hours has already become evident, especially in the North.

2026 and 2027 are described as sensitive periods, when electricity demand rises sharply in hot months while many new power sources have not yet come online.

In a scenario prioritizing wind and solar, Laos imports, small hydropower, and rooftop solar are assessed to remain on track, and the system in 2026 would basically ensure electricity supply. However, peak-hour pressure—especially in the North’s dry season—would still require capacity adjustments of 500-2,700 MW depending on the operating scenario.

From 2027 onward, if base sources continue to lag behind the plan, the system could face large-scale shortages and increasing deficits year by year. In the North, if flexible sources such as BESS (battery energy storage systems) and fast-response power sources like ICE (internal-combustion engines) are not sufficient, peak-hour shortages could appear as early as 2027.

Worst-case scenario: capacity and energy shortfalls

In a worst-case scenario for 2028-2030, the capacity shortfall could reach 9-19 GW, equivalent to 10-37% of peak demand. Energy shortfalls could range from 0.85-27 billion kWh, or about 0.5-9% of total electricity demand.

System-wide balance by 2030

On a system-wide basis, total usable capacity by 2030 is calculated to be below maximum demand. The maximum possible electricity output could be around 544 billion kWh, while demand is projected to reach 560-625 billion kWh.