Stock market blog: Is investor psychology skewed by the index?

Most stocks continued to see profit-taking, with 213 stocks closing lower. Nearly 100 of them fell by more than 1%. Trading opportunities in the cash market appeared limited, while derivatives were viewed as more favorable, particularly in the F2 contract as the discount widened by the end of the morning session.

Market direction and index-stock divergence

Although it was a derivatives expiry session, the market was expected to be less volatile in cash due to a near-term long bias and relatively low open interest. In practice, the strength of several market leaders—VIC, VHM, supported by MWG, MSN, and VPB—helped the VN30 index rise sharply in the morning and then maintain a wide trading range for the rest of the session.

The influence of market leaders on the VN-Index (VNI) remained significant. The gain-to-loss ratio per stock was only 0.49/1, yet the index still increased by more than 19 points (+1.07%). The broader sell-off was therefore framed as consistent with profit-taking, though investors were watching how strong the selling pressure would become.

Liquidity and breadth

With close to 100 stocks down more than 1%, the risk of portfolio damage was considered fairly high. However, liquidity did not improve and fell on the two exchanges when excluding the five most liquid stocks, with the remaining stocks down by more than 6%. The weak trading suggested that the main pressure was short-term, rather than resembling the exit dynamics seen in mid-March.

Leaders’ performance and near-term sentiment

Concerns about investor psychology resurfaced due to the repeated divergence between index and stock movements, as investors continued to use VNI as a trading reference. The index was described as moving back toward historical highs, which typically creates resistance and makes short-term strategies cautious.

VIC and VHM were highlighted as key supports. VIC returned to historical highs and closed at a new historical high (though not at the intraday maximum), hitting the limit up for two consecutive sessions. VHM also rose again to touch its peak. In contrast, banking bellwethers remained subdued in a lower range. If these leaders weaken, the VN30 index could be affected and short-term selling sentiment may rise.

With external issues not yet fully resolved, sentiment remained defensive and focused on safety. The liquidity backdrop was described as relatively low during the rally, implying that selling pressure would not be large unless there was a strong push on the leaders. The guidance was to participate with a short-term mindset and keep cash available in case selling pressure expands.

Derivatives trading: F1 vs F2 and basis signals

In the derivatives market, prices moved widely and sentiment was positive. VN30 initially dropped quickly to 1959.xx, coinciding with pullbacks in VIC and VHM. However, F1 did not fall as much, leaving a bottom gap of over 7 points. This was described as making Long entries difficult because there was no certainty that VIC and VHM would pull back to the same extent. The range from 1959.xx to 1969.xx was characterized as not tradable, while a move beyond 1969.xx reduced the basis to near-negligible levels, allowing a Long bet with the expectation that VIC and VHM would attract significant money.

After VIC and VHM lifted the index, VN30 reached 1982.xx after 11:00. At that point, the basis shifted to a discount of more than 5 points, which was described as a time to close positions because other traders were also closing, especially given accumulated longs at the VN30 bottom. The Long position captured about half of the rally, with the setup considered correct and the risk described as low.

End-of-morning profit opportunity and rolling maturity pattern

The clearest profit opportunity was described as the misalignment between F1 and F2 at the end of the morning session. When F1 was carried up with VN30, F2 lagged, creating a discount of around 11:15 to more than 19 points. Since F2 still had more time to expiry, wide dispersion was considered normal. The article also noted a rolling maturity pattern—closing in F1 and shifting to F2—that tends to strengthen on expiry day, especially in the afternoon.

As long as VIC and VHM sustained their strength for VN30, the Long setup was expected to support F2. This was said to appear at the start of the afternoon session, with the most favorable area described as 1960 to 1975.

Outlook and key levels

With the risk of weakness among the leaders, the underlying market was expected to fall on the last trading day of the week. However, unless there was a strong push on the leaders, stock price movements were expected to remain slow.

VN30 closed at 1979.19. Nearest resistance levels for the next session were listed as 1982; 1997; 2007; 2015; 2027; 2039; and 2050. Support levels were listed as 1971; 1960; 1949; 1941; 1926; and 1907.

Blog chứng khoán is personal and does not represent the views of VnEconomy. The opinions and assessments are those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s voice and style. VnEconomy and the author do not take responsibility for issues arising from the assessments and investment opinions published.