Stock Market Blog: Signs of cautious optimism from the securities sector

The market remained liquidity-starved, with investors largely adopting a wait-and-see stance. Toward the end of the session, however, the securities sector showed signs of improvement, supported by internally positive information that helped ease sentiment.

Late-session rally and intraday timing

Trading activity appeared concentrated in roughly the final 15 minutes of the continuous session and into the ATC for some stocks. During this period, the securities group was the clear focus, with prices pushed higher across the sector.

Intraday timing was described as highly similar across multiple measures. After around 2:10–2:15 PM, several securities-related tickers began to rise, including VCI (around 2:10 PM), SSI (around 2:15 PM), and FTS, SHS, and BSI (from around the same time).

Breadth improved sharply as volatility turned positive

The sharp positive volatility in the securities group had a psychological effect on market breadth. At 2:00 PM, breadth stood at 97 up / 197 down. By 2:14 PM, it had shifted slightly to 98 up / 204 down. In the final 15 minutes and into the ATC, breadth improved further to 161 up / 140 down, with many stocks rising and moving above reference levels within a short window.

Liquidity: concentration late in the session

Liquidity improved late in the day. Approximately 31.5% of total matched value on HSX was concentrated in the last 30 minutes (including ATC), contributing to trading for the afternoon rising by roughly 28% versus the morning. Even so, overall liquidity remained low: the two exchanges together matched just over 14.3 trillion. The report also noted that both price movement and liquidity tended to occur in short bursts.

Cause and development: upgrade expectations

The move was linked to the securities sector reacting positively to upgrade information expected to be announced tomorrow. The information was described as not entirely new, and while the outcome could be anticipated, there had previously been limited market reaction. The report said market interest has shifted outward, and that identifying an upgrade provides greater certainty around timing in October and the list of stocks expected to be included. Funds, it added, will likely need to buy sooner or later.

Market outlook and scenario monitoring

Beyond the immediate catalyst, the report pointed to a potential convergence of positive developments in early April if there is no Middle East conflict. These include the formation of a new government, clearer upgrade assessments, and the appearance of Q1 2026 results—factors described as supporting internal momentum.

It also referenced the “G-hour” at 7:00 AM on April 8. If the conflict escalates strongly, the market is expected to react negatively for a period, with the severity depending on the scale of destruction and regional spillovers. The report urged monitoring selling pressure in the coming days under the worst-case scenario.

Futures market: wider range and trading notes

The futures market was described as an expanded version of the previous day, with wider fluctuations in the range 1850.xx to 1835.xx and a broader basis spread. Long/short opportunities were noted around these two points, though the short side was said to be disadvantaged when F1 declines more slowly than VN30.

The late 15-minute rally was described as difficult to trade because it occurred abruptly, within a short time window, and the long-entry was nearly 10 points worse. The basis closed still positive by more than 7 points, slightly narrower than yesterday, but continuing to reflect expectations for a constructive underlying market.

VN30 levels

VN30 closed at 1840.96. Nearest resistance levels for tomorrow were listed as 1851; 1859; 1865; 1881; 1892; and 1906. Support levels were listed as 1835; 1816; 1802; 1786; and 1769.