Stocks form near-term bottom; next week’s move could be a breakout or a continuation of consolidation

Stocks have formed a near-term bottom after a volatile week, with the VN-Index showing strength midweek before stabilizing. The VN-Index rose 3.92% for the week to 1,750 points, marking the third consecutive weekly gain. After the surge, the market retraced in the final two sessions but remained around 1,750 points.

For the week, VN-Index gained 65.96 points, about 3.92%, ending at 1,750 points for the third straight weekly increase. Liquidity stayed steady, with trading value around the 20-week average, suggesting funds were not exiting but rotating among sectors. Market breadth was positive, with 17 of 21 sectors up.

Sector performance and foreign flows

Top gainers included the securities group (+5.46%), banks (+5.25%), and steel (+4.95%). On the downside, insurers fell (-6.60%), chemicals declined (-2.92%), and pharmaceuticals dropped (-0.96%).

Foreign investors continued to net sell more than VND 3,180 billion on HoSE.

Technical picture: gap dynamics and near-term bottom

Technically, the rally created a large gap up in the 1,677–1,705 point range. Although some profit-taking pressure appeared in the last two sessions, the market quickly stabilized, suggesting demand remains absorptive and supporting a potential formation of a short-term bottom.

That said, the analyst cautions that the nearly 80-point gain has lifted sentiment, but the move is more consistent with a technical rebound than the start of a strong uptrend. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

With a large price gap below around 1,677 and the market approaching an older gap near 1,769, sessions may turn choppy, as gaps are typically filled after sharp rallies.

What drove the rebound

Key drivers behind the rally were not limited to upgrades or domestic factors. External developments also played a role: the United States and Iran reaching a ceasefire contributed to a drop in global oil prices by more than 15%, supporting sentiment. In this context, external news can cause the index to swing by tens of points in a short time.

Positioning and expected support from index-related flows

VPBankS analysts estimate passive capital inflows into the Vietnamese market of about USD 1.7 billion as FTSE Vietnam Index constituents join the FTSE Emerging Market basket. In addition, persistent foreign selling has widened foreign ownership headroom for large-cap, highly liquid stocks. By early April 2026, foreign holdings in most FTSE Vietnam Index stocks remained well below the foreign ownership cap.

Outlook and implications for investors

While the VN-Index surpassed 1,750, the market has not yet entered a major upturn. Caution is advised, with a focus on selective opportunities, particularly in deeply discounted stocks.