TMC The Metals Company could obtain a commercial recovery permit within 12 months, providing a path to revenue if approved

TMC The Metals Company is a deep-sea minerals exploration start-up aiming to harvest polymetallic nodules—potato-sized rocks rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. All four minerals are strategically important to the U.S., where demand is strong but supply remains weak. A key part of TMC’s investment case is its potential to strengthen the U.S. supply chain for these metals.

However, TMC has been held back by a regulatory impasse. The company is positioned over a resource of nodules worth billions, but it cannot legally harvest them without a commercial recovery permit, which it does not yet have. The central question for investors is whether that permit could arrive within the next 12 months—turning the company from a speculative project into a business with a defined revenue path.

Regulatory path: potential permit decision within 12 months

Over the next year, a favorable outcome for TMC would involve regulators granting approval to proceed with deep-sea mining and the company beginning preparations for commercial production of its nodule reserves, including offshore and onshore activities.

The first milestone could occur before the end of 2026. The Trump administration has made critical minerals a priority and has taken steps to accelerate permitting timelines for offshore mining projects. In March 2026, TMC received an early but significant regulatory update: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that its deep-sea mining application met key requirements for review.

According to CFO Craig Shesky, this confirmation leaves the company confident it can obtain the commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months.

Operational groundwork: collection and potential processing

Beyond regulatory approval, TMC also needs to demonstrate that its technology and infrastructure can support commercial activity. The company says it has shown its nodule collection technology works and currently has the vessel “The Hidden Gem” along with two collector vehicles.

TMC is also pursuing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, where the nodules would be refined into battery-grade metals.

Demand backdrop for battery-related metals

Even with permitting progress, TMC’s outlook depends on continued demand for critical metals. The article notes that while EV sales have not taken off as expected, demand for lithium-ion batteries for other uses—such as energy storage—is expanding quickly.

Valuation and market expectations

TMC is trading at about $4.50, which the article describes as more than 50% below its 52-week high. The stock is also described as trading at roughly 25 times book value, which is characterized as high for a mining company.

The article further states that TMC has a market capitalization of about $2 billion, while estimates its net present value (NAV) at roughly $23.6 billion. On that basis, it suggests the market is pricing the company at about $0.08 to $0.09 for every $1 of estimated value. The article frames this as reflecting investor uncertainty rather than a clear indication of undervaluation, while noting that the gap could widen if TMC begins producing nodules in the near term.

Impact: what happens if the permit arrives—or doesn’t

The next 12 months could be decisive. If TMC secures approval to mine nodules commercially, the article suggests today’s price may look like an opportunity in hindsight. If the permit is not obtained, it argues the current discount could be justified.