US blockade of Hormuz Strait complicates relations with China and India

The US move to block the Hormuz Strait is likely to increase pressure on Iran while also creating complications for Washington’s relationships with China and India, two major Asia partners with different levels of exposure to Middle East energy supply disruptions.

Challenge to US ties with China and India

China’s exposure is closely tied to energy dependence: it buys nearly 98% of Iran’s oil exports. With only a few weeks remaining before US President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the US “maximum-pressure” approach could complicate efforts to de-escalate tensions that the Trump administration has pursued in recent times.

For India, the impact is more immediate on the economic front. New Delhi maintains a complex relationship with Washington but remains heavily dependent on energy imports, leaving it more vulnerable as the shock to energy prices spreads.

Diplomatic signals and rising tensions

Ahead of Trump’s expected mid-May visit to China, the US administration has recently signaled a desire to keep the bilateral relationship stable for the planned high-level meeting.

Wendy Cutler, deputy president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former US trade negotiator, said that “a conflict with Iran, especially the Hormuz blockade, could derail that effort.”

Tensions have already become more visible. On April 14, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun described the US blockade of Iran’s ports in the Hormuz Strait as a “dangerous and irresponsible” act that could escalate regional tensions.

More than a month after the Iran conflict erupted, Trump continued to indicate tariffs could be used to apply pressure. He warned he would impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing provided weapons to Iran. China responded that the accusations were baseless, with Guo saying: “China will respond if the US uses the issue of selling weapons as a pretext to impose additional tariffs.”

India, meanwhile, faces pressure in the opposite direction. Its heavy reliance on imported energy makes the economy more exposed to developments in the Middle East. Earlier this month, India resumed importing oil and gas from Iran after seven years of disruption, following the US’s temporary sanctions relief on Iranian oil.

After nearly a 40-minute phone call with Trump on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the two sides had a “useful” exchange on the situation in West Asia, emphasizing that India supports de-escalation and a quick restoration of peace.

Arpit Chaturvedi, a South Asia geopolitical risk adviser at Teneo, said that even if Washington grants India some special exceptions, they are unlikely to be sufficient to meet all of New Delhi’s energy needs. He added that as US-blocked Iranian ports begin to have more pronounced effects, India may have to stop importing crude oil from Iran, warning that this could further strain relations between New Delhi and Washington.

Energy shock: differing resilience between China and India

Analysts describe the energy shock affecting China and India in markedly different ways.

China: buffers from reserves and diversified supply

China’s vulnerability is described as lower than that of many other large economies due to large oil reserves and a more diversified energy mix. Iranian oil shipments to China continue to flow, suggesting Tehran’s exports have not been disrupted to a significant degree.

According to Windward data, as of Tuesday there were about 157.7 million barrels of Iranian crude floating on the sea, with nearly 98% heading to China.

Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, said China’s strategic reserves and commercial inventories, together with oil already en route, are enough to cover more than 120 days of net imports. He added that if only Iranian oil is disrupted, China could absorb the shock by sourcing from alternatives and increasing coal usage.

India: limited room to absorb disruption

India has less flexibility. Sumedha Dasgupta, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, said that as the world’s third-largest oil importer, India’s net oil imports amount to about 3.5% of GDP, placing the country among the most vulnerable economies if the US continues to blockade Iranian ports and Hormuz remains under Tehran’s control.

With oil reserves sufficient for less than 60 days, New Delhi would face greater pressure if Middle East supply disruptions continue.

Dasgupta also highlighted the special impact of LPG, an essential fuel for cooking and heating in households and many businesses. She said India has almost no strategic LPG reserves, while stock held by refiners and distributors is enough to meet demand for about 2–3 weeks if imports are disrupted.

“Nearly all LPG imports to India come from the Middle East, and that supply accounted for about 66% of the country’s demand last year,” Dasgupta added.

Potential risks and scenarios for escalation

Analysts say the likelihood that China and India would react strongly enough to quickly sour ties with the US appears relatively low.

Wang said the US blockade of Hormuz and the tariffs are not targeted at China alone but affect all buyers of Iranian crude. He suggested Beijing is therefore more likely to respond diplomatically rather than taking decisive retaliatory steps.

For India, Chaturvedi said New Delhi is likely to gradually reduce energy imports from Iran after exemptions expire, while seeking supplies from Russia, the United States, Australia and other sources. He added that “Mr. Modi will not go beyond the lines that Mr. Trump has drawn.”

Still, analysts warned that miscalculation or a direct naval clash could escalate tensions and undermine fragile stability between Washington and Beijing. David Meale, head of China research at Eurasia Group, said a US move to block a Chinese-flagged vessel could become a serious incident because Beijing would not be able to stay silent and would have to take a firm stance with Washington.

He warned that such an event could push US-China relations into a state very different from today.

On Tuesday, the Rich Starry, a chemical carrier owned by China and on the US sanctions list, sailed through the Hormuz Strait to leave the Gulf, a day after the US blockade began.