Vietnamese retailers set double-digit profit targets for 2026 as consumption recovers and earnings grow

Retail stocks in Vietnam are regaining momentum as domestic purchasing power improves and earnings growth becomes more visible in company profit plans. After a strong rally, however, the market is showing signs of divergence, requiring investors to differentiate carefully between growth and defensive opportunities.

Cause: Consumption support and retail modernization

The rebound in consumer demand is being supported by a VAT reduction to 8% through the end of 2026, alongside rising household incomes. At the same time, tighter oversight of small businesses and the push for electronic invoicing are creating conditions for modern retail chains to expand market share more quickly.

Under Vietnam’s retail market development strategy to 2030, retail revenue of goods and consumer services is expected to grow by an average of 11%–11.5% per year.

Development: Clear differentiation after the rally

Recent price movements across retail stocks show a relatively clear split. Technology and home appliances names have led the rebound, while other segments—such as drugstores, jewelry, and electronics distribution—are moving on different catalysts and risk profiles.

MWG: Earnings momentum tied to phone-electronics and food

MWG has attracted funds after setting a 2026 profit-after-tax target of over VND 9.2 trillion, up about 30% from the previous year—if achieved, the highest profit in the company’s history. SSI Research also forecasts MWG’s Q1 2026 net profit could reach about VND 2.25 trillion, up 45% year-on-year and surpassing the Q4 2025 peak.

Investors are optimistic because MWG’s two key pillars are showing renewed performance: the phone-electronics chain and the food chain. In 2025, MWG and Dien May Xanh recorded strong revenue growth despite fewer stores, reflecting improved operating efficiency. Meanwhile, Bach Hoa Xanh has moved past its long loss period and began contributing profits.

FRT: Long Chau expectations, but valuation debate

FRT is another standout, driven by expectations for the Long Chau drugstore chain. FRT targets pre-tax profit in 2026 of about VND 1.55 trillion, up 27%. SSI forecasts Q1 2026 profit could rise as much as 74%.

The main driver is Long Chau, where margins are described as more stable and less dependent on the technology consumer cycle.

However, FRT is also viewed as controversial: its current stock price is considerably higher than MWG, MSN, or PNJ despite a smaller profit scale. Some experts argue that the valuation already reflects substantial growth expectations, which could limit near-term upside.

MSN: Strong recovery linked to modern retail shift

In essential consumer retail, MSN is showing a strong comeback. Masan is seen as a direct beneficiary of the shift from traditional to modern retail through WinMart and WinMart+. Forecasts suggest MSN’s Q1 2026 profit could exceed VND 2.5 trillion, up 154% year-on-year—the largest increase in the retail group.

MSN’s recent stock performance has been more positive than last year, as investors return following restructuring progress and improved profitability at the WinCommerce chain.

PNJ: Defensive positioning supported by jewelry demand

PNJ is considered the best defensive stock in the retail group. After difficulties linked to volatile gold prices and weaker purchasing power, PNJ is regaining momentum. The company targets profit of about VND 3.409 trillion in 2026, up more than 20%.

SSI forecasts Q1 profit could rise up to 121%, reaching about VND 1.5 trillion, helped by improved gold supply and rising jewelry demand. The demand outlook is supported by consumer recovery, with jewelry, gifts, and luxury spending typically strengthening around weddings and holidays.

DGW: Electronics replacement cycle and AI-integrated products

DGW stands out in technology distribution. After two years of difficulties caused by an electronics market slump, DGW is benefiting from a replacement cycle, particularly for phones, laptops, and AI-integrated products. The company targets pre-tax profit growth of nearly 19% in 2026, while Q1 profit is forecast to rise about 60%.

Data and valuation signals

Despite the sector’s improved outlook, the retail stock group is not as cheap as in early 2025. After the rally, many companies’ valuations have returned to the mean or above historical averages, implying that the market may require continued strong actual results to sustain the uptrend.

According to a recent ACBS study, modern trade channel expansion (including online channels) is a highlight in Vietnam’s retail landscape. In Southeast Asia, modern channels account for 35%–40% in urban areas and 15%–20% in rural regions. In Vietnam, major chains include thegioididong.com, dienmayxanh.com, bachhoaxanh.com, WinCommerce, and Long Chau.

ACBS provides target prices of 106,000 dong for MWG, 172,000 dong for FRT, and 133,000 dong for PNJ. It also estimates 2026 P/E ratios of 14.5x for MWG, 26.4x for FRT, and 12.6x for PNJ, with dividend yields this year of 21%, 7.2%, and 23.1% respectively.

Impact and key risks

Retail stocks remain highly sensitive to consumer cycles. If interest rates rise again, incomes weaken, or purchasing power recovers more slowly than expected, stocks such as MWG, FRT, or DGW could face substantial downside.

Analysis: Medium- and long-term outlook

Even with near-term valuation and cycle risks, the medium- and long-term outlook remains constructive for Vietnam’s retail sector in 2026. Growth opportunities are expected to continue from the shift to modern retail, e-commerce, and omnichannel consumer ecosystems, particularly for large-cap firms with strong management.

Based on the segment roles described in the article: MWG and FRT are positioned for growth-seeking investors; PNJ and MSN fit a stable-hold strategy; and DGW is for investors willing to take higher risk in search of breakout potential.