Vietnamese stock market shows similarity to April 2025 as VN-Index forms a bottom and begins to rebound

The outcome of the negotiations has been disappointing for global investors and for the Vietnamese stock market in particular. In the previous trading week, the VN-Index rebounded relatively strongly as tensions between the parties cooled and the market anticipated an early favorable result. Even so, investors remain cautious that the market may struggle to extend gains immediately after positive news has largely been priced in.

Cause: tariff and military-action signals shift market expectations

According to Mirae Asset Securities, data alignment from 2025 to date suggests markets often stabilize when uncertainty peaks and signals shift from escalation toward negotiation. The trigger cited is when U.S. President Donald Trump announced decisions to suspend hardline tariff and military actions for negotiation time after the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.3%.

Mirae Asset points to March 23, when Trump said he would delay air strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Prior to the sentiment boost, the 10-year yield had reached its highest level since July 2025.

Development: parallels with prior market bottoming and a cooling war outlook

Mirae Asset says the market’s reaction to the March 23 announcement resembled the period when markets bottomed in mid-April 2025, after Trump announced a 90-day moratorium to negotiate reciprocal tariffs. While the brokerage believes there is a basis to think the market may have formed a bottom, it also expects volatility to persist following later statements and news.

Brokerages also cite reasons to expect a cooling path for the war within four to five weeks, including:

• The U.S. midterm elections in November are approaching.
• U.S. labor-market data show signs of cooling. To avoid a stagflation trap, cooling the war to ease persistent inflation could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• In May, an expected appointment of a Fed chair could influence the pace of rate cuts. Kevin Warsh argues the U.S. economy is entering a high-productivity cycle supported by AI and looser regulatory constraints, which could allow faster rate cuts—potentially toward 3%—without triggering inflation.

Mirae Asset also notes that Stephen Miran, a Governor and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is among the more dovish FOMC members. He argues the Fed should ignore temporary supply shocks, such as the current oil-price spike related to the Iran conflict, and support rate cuts to weaken the U.S. dollar to spur activity.

Data and domestic context: Vietnam’s growth target and market valuation signals

Domestically, despite volatility linked to Trump-related news, structural growth drivers remain in line with expectations. On April 6, the first session of the 16th National Assembly opened, marking a turning point in consolidating the state apparatus for the 2026–2031 term.

The government reaffirmed its ambitious 2026 growth target of 10%, though first-quarter data came in below the target at 7.83% versus 9.1%.

On March 23, the VN-Index recovered after the P/E ratio reached the long-term average minus one standard deviation, around 14.4x. Mirae Asset expects the uptrend to continue because the P/E is around 16x, which it describes as attractive compared with the long-term average of 17x.

The brokerage says market structure currently mirrors April 2025. After reciprocal tax was announced on April 2, 2025, the market saw rapid de-rating, with P/E falling to about 12.3x (as of April 8) before rebounding to 17.3x.

Impact and outlook: profit growth forecast and investor risk management

Vietnam is expected to leverage internal growth drivers while balancing against rising external risks. Mirae Asset maintains its 2026 profit growth forecast for listed companies at 20%, with the growth rate potentially adjusted further during upcoming shareholders’ meetings based on company business plans.

However, global stock markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, swinging between optimism when tensions ease and recession fears when tensions persist. With external risks still present and volatility rising, the article advises investors to actively manage cash to flexibly accumulate fundamentally solid stocks at attractive valuations.

Expert view

Dao Phuc Tuong: “The stock market will move sideways and a large rally in 2026 is hard to expect.”

Additional market notes from sources

• SGI Capital: High interest rates will exert pressure as margins sit at record levels.
• Market upgrade: Opportunities and challenges go hand in hand.
• Money-flow trend: How far can the near-term rally go?