VPBankS forecasts Q1 2026 earnings: several sectors to accelerate multi-fold, with two groups potentially experiencing negative growth

In its Q1 earnings forecast report, VPBankS Securities (VPBankS) expects the oil and gas, fertilizer, and residential real estate sectors to post year-over-year growth of more than 100%. The fertilizer segment is forecast to lead, with growth of up to 142%, driven mainly by a low base in the same period last year. VPBankS also cites improved selling prices and demand, which are expected to widen profit margins.

Sector outlook: fertilizer, oil and gas, and real estate

VPBankS forecasts the oil and gas group to grow 106% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery across the value chain as oil prices remain favorable. Exploration, technical services, and downstream activity are all improving, providing growth momentum for companies in the sector.

For residential and commercial real estate firms, VPBankS expects net profit after tax to rise by about 112% year-on-year in Q1 2026. The main driver is contributions from several large companies, including VHM, supported by revenue recognition from the Vinhomes Green Paradise project.

Real estate market conditions and policy developments

VPBankS notes that real estate credit continues to be tightly controlled to cool housing price increases, which is expected to slow market liquidity, particularly in the secondary segment. In contrast, the primary market is showing signs of improvement as developers accelerate project execution and work with commercial banks to offer more flexible payment policies and attractive loan packages.

The brokerage also points to planned infrastructure completions in 2026, which are expected to support housing demand, especially in areas benefiting from improved transport connectivity.

On the regulatory front, the Ministry of Construction is proposing amendments to the Housing Law and the Real Estate Business Law. These are expected to be submitted to the government in June 2026 and discussed during the October session of the National Assembly. VPBankS expects the changes to help complete the legal framework and provide a foundation for more sustainable real estate market development over the medium to long term.

Risks: sectors expected to face profit declines

Despite the positive outlook for several sectors, VPBankS analysts forecast declines in profitability for others. The power group is expected to shrink by about 11.9% year-on-year, mainly due to unfavorable hydrological conditions that reduce hydroelectric output, while thermal power input costs remain high, pressuring margins across the industry.

VPBankS also expects industrial park real estate and rubber to decline by around 13.3%. For industrial park real estate, the forecast reflects softer short-term demand for industrial land rents. For rubber, results are expected to be affected by volatile and unfavorable natural rubber prices.