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BlackRock has accumulated $1.34 billion in Bitcoin over the last eight days, including a $284 million purchase on April 17. Bitcoin was trading above $62,000 on April 17, with institutional demand supported in part by hedging against geopolitical instability.
For the April 17 market, the probability of Bitcoin staying above $62,000 is priced at 99.9% YES. Similar levels are shown for April 18.
The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching between $78,000 and $80,000 by April 15 is priced at 100% YES, up from 20% just a week earlier.
For the April 18 markets, actual USDC traded is $89,134, with face value at $89,387. The order book depth indicates thick buying pressure, which is helping maintain the high odds.
Price action has been stable, with no notable single-candle spikes over the last 24 hours. This pattern is consistent with steady institutional buying rather than speculative bursts.
BlackRock’s continued accumulation is occurring alongside ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, where Bitcoin is being treated as a geopolitical hedge. Traders buying YES at 100¢ are effectively pricing in sustained or increasing Bitcoin levels.
Reversing the current momentum would likely require significant geopolitical de-escalation or a major market shock, according to the article’s framing.
Potential volatility drivers highlighted include statements from Jerome Powell and developments in U.S.-Iran relations. The article also notes that changes in BlackRock’s buying strategy or significant ETF inflows and outflows could affect these markets.
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