Expert: Q1 2026 results are strong, but investors remain focused on external factors

The market is entering the Q1 2026 earnings season with estimates suggesting total market profits will continue to grow year over year, but at a slower pace than in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the VN-Index remains unsettled by external geopolitical developments and has not yet returned to a stable domestic macroeconomic footing.

ACBS outlook: profit growth expected to stay strong

Speaking on the Talkshow Phố Tài chính, Do Minh Trang, Director of ACBS’s Analysis Center, said Q1 2026 results of listed companies are expected to be very positive, with growth of around 20% year on year.

She added that the growth outlook is no longer sharply differentiated across sectors and is expected to be relatively even across most industries.

Sector-by-sector expectations

Banks: main engine of earnings growth

For banks, ACBS expects profit growth of more than 20% per year and views the sector as the main driver of market earnings growth.

Although the government and the State Bank of Vietnam are tightening credit growth in 2026, forecasts suggest credit growth will reach about 3% by end-Q1 2026 from the start of the year, and about 20% versus a year earlier. The pace is described as more positive than in previous years, as credit often accelerates at year-end and slows at the start of the following year.

In addition, while term deposit rates have risen significantly, lending rates have also increased, helping keep net interest margins (NIM) stable or even slightly expanding—supporting banks’ earnings growth.

Securities: trading activity and margin loans support profits

ACBS expects securities profits to grow by more than 40%, driven by a 90%+ increase in average daily trading value in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025 and an 18% rise versus Q4 2025.

The margin loan book is also expected to continue expanding, which may help brokers not heavily focused on proprietary trading record positive Q1 2026 earnings.

Real estate: divergence between industrial and residential

Real estate is expected to show divergence. Industrial real estate has not picked up since the 2025 related tax event in April 2025, but it still maintains stable growth of around 10% per year.

Residential real estate is expected to be less favorable. Stricter credit controls on property since late 2025 and VHM’s dominant role in the segment—nearly 90% of the sector’s after-tax profit—mean profit growth depends heavily on VHM’s profitability trajectory. With lending rates rising, the outlook for residential real estate is not expected to be very positive.

Retail, public investment and building materials: expected to report positive results

Retail, public investment, and building materials groups are also expected to post positive earnings in Q1 2026. Early 2026 retail sales have shown positive growth, and the government’s push to accelerate public investment is cited as a prerequisite supporting earnings for these groups.

Oil & gas: higher prices, but profit impact varies by segment

The oil & gas group, a focus of March, has seen oil prices rise sharply, exceeding $100 per barrel in recent days due to supply disruptions related to the Middle East conflict.

However, the impact on profits differs by segment. For upstream players (drilling, extraction, and rig construction), oil price volatility is expected to have little effect on near-term results because most service contracts are medium-term and price increases typically occur only when oil remains high for an extended period.

Downstream players (transport, refining, fuel retail distribution, and fertilizers) benefit from higher oil prices, but profits may not be sustainable if oil prices fall suddenly or if supply chains are disrupted.

Why results have not yet translated into stock prices

According to Ms. Trang, the above results have not yet been reflected in stock prices. The main reason is the external environment—geopolitical developments in the Middle East and rising oil prices. As a result, investor sentiment has led to reduced equity allocations and continued market adjustments under selling pressure.

At current price levels, the VN-Index is trading around the 5-year earnings-per-share median. Large-cap sectors that influence overall market earnings growth—such as banks, securities, retail, and public investment—are expected to deliver very positive Q1 2026 results, and their valuation ranges remain reasonably priced for mid-to-long-term investment horizons.

Therefore, the market is still being driven mainly by external geopolitical issues rather than Q1 2026 earnings. While the concern is valid, investors are advised not to be overly pessimistic and miss potential opportunities.

Investment stance: low-risk, mid-to-long-term focus

Given the current valuation, ACBS’s Director of Analysis said it is a fair level for mid-to-long-term investment decisions. She highlighted both opportunities and challenges: opportunities include a relatively positive company growth outlook, the prospect of upgrading Vietnam’s stock market, and government commitment to growth. Challenges include geopolitical risks and inflation risk following shifts in global monetary policy.

In this context, she recommended a low-risk strategy focused on accumulating assets with a mid-to-long-term horizon. Investors may consider buying on deeper market corrections because valuations are reasonably attractive, while avoiding chasing rallies and avoiding leverage when the market rises sharply, as short-term trends remain unclear.

She also suggested focusing on stock groups capable of sustaining profit growth without being overly affected by external risks, including banks, domestically focused retailers, consumer staples (electricity, water), and industries tied to public investment strategies.